Update: I've updated this with 2020 presidential data. I've also since obtained Oktibbeha County 2000 results and that's reflected in my spreadsheets. Note rounding ---- there may be a few counties/precincts that are 0.01 off. - Patrick, 5/8/2023
In 2001, Mississippi voters went to the polls to decide whether to keep the current flag bearing the Confederate emblem or choose a new flag that didn't. The old flag won in a landslide taking a total of 64%. While the results largely matched the presidential results (i.e. old flag supporters for Bush, new flag supporters for Gore), there were a number of crossover voters. In this write-up, I will discuss 1) who the Gore/old flag voters were and their characteristics, 2) who the Bush/new flag voters were and their characteristics, and 3) how the results from the 2001 flag referendum predicted future coalitions in Mississippi politics.
2001 new flag support vs. 2000 Gore support
County analysis
In 2000, Democratic nominee Al Gore won 40.7% of the vote in Mississippi. Black voters made up the bulk of Gore's support in the state as has been the case in the state since the civil rights era in the 1960s. Based on county results, we know that the vast majority of his voters also supported the new flag. But Gore did get 17% of the white vote, much of which came from Northeast Mississippi, also known as "Hill Country." Hill Country was the best part of the state for the old flag in the 2001 referendum. While NE Mississippi voted mostly for the Republicans at the presidential level, the area still had a number of ancestral Democrats that were loyal to the party and voted for Gore. Gore carried at least 29% of the vote in each of the core Hill Country counties.
Out of the top 10 counties in negative value between the new flag and Gore, 7 were core NE Mississippi counties. 1 was another county in North Mississippi and 2 were in South Mississippi. Tishomingo County, the whitest county in the state in 2000 (95%), had the lowest vote for the new flag at just 9%. But it was far from George Bush's best county in the state. Out of 82 counties, Tishomingo ranked 40th in Bush % and was only a little over a point more Republican than the state as a whole. A large number of people in Tishomingo County and other parts of NE Mississippi were ancestral Democrats that voted Gore but also strongly supported keeping the state flag. Additionally, other rural counties throughout the state (such as Hancock and George) had voters who voted Gore in 2000 and to keep the flag in 2001.
Precinct analysis
The Mississippi SOS site and the Internet Archive make it possible to drill this information down to the precinct level in a county. While a few key counties are missing (including Tishomingo), most of the information needed is there. In this chart, I've selected a total of 14 precincts in the state; two from each of the 7 counties in the top 10 where results are available.
The precinct results make this more clear. While Gore did not win any of these precincts, he won at least a quarter of the vote in all of them and over 40% in a handful. In Alcorn County's Bethel community, there were 90 votes cast in both the 2000 general election and 2001 flag referendum. Gore received 33 votes in the 2000 election there while the new flag did not receive one vote in the 2001 referendum. In the Bayou Phillip community of Hancock County, Gore had 36 votes out of 96 cast in 2000, while the new flag had 0 out of 107 in 2001.
Those that supported Gore and the old flag can be characterized as rural, white, without a college degree, and generally low-income. Most stayed loyal to the Democratic Party out of tradition despite being conservative on cultural issues such as the state flag. These voters were most present in Northeast Mississippi, but other parts of Mississippi showed this pattern as well.
Bush/new flag voters
County analysis
Republican nominee George W. Bush carried Mississippi with 57.6% of the vote. He won 81% of the white vote which made up nearly all of his support in the state. Based on county results, most Bush voters supported the old flag, but there were some that did not. As seen below, many of these were voters located in Metro Jackson or in college towns.
Suburban Madison County north of Jackson had the biggest positive difference from Gore support to the new flag. Bush carried the county with 64% of the vote but the new flag also won there. Oktibbeha County (Starkville) saw a 12 point positive difference in Gore support ----> new flag support. Other counties with that were top 5 in Gore support ->>> new flag support included Hinds (Jackson), Rankin (suburban Jackson), and Lafayette (Oxford).
Precinct analysis
Precinct results from these counties tell us where exactly these Bush/new flag voters were. I have included Ralph Nader votes in the Gore column in precincts where he won more than 2%. These precincts are marked with an asterisk. I've also included the Thames precinct here which is a white-collar professional area of Hattiesburg. Forrest County was not a Bush ---> new flag county but Thames was a precinct where this trend was visible.
In Northeast Jackson, the new flag beat the old flag by double-digits in several precincts where Al Gore received less than 20%. Most of these voters were less conservative than the voters in precincts where Gore got a large chunk and the old flag won giant majorities. But there isn't as much of an ancestral Democratic tradition in places like Jackson than there is in places like in Iuka or Fulton. While Jimmy Carter won back NE Mississippi for the Democrats for the first time since 1960, he lost handily in Metro Jackson. His two worst counties in the state were Rankin and Hinds. Places like NE Jackson and SW Hattiesburg have historically been conservative but more moderate on cultural issues than most of the state. These were rare pockets of the state where Richard Nixon won a plurality in 1968. George Wallace won the rest of the state's white vote overwhelmingly. Precincts like those in NE Jackson and Thames in Hattiesburg (which was part of the Pinecrest precinct in the 1968 precinct photo linked) were parts of the state where the new flag ran well ahead of Gore.
The new flag ran also significantly ahead of Gore in suburban precincts and college precincts. Highland Colony in Madison voted for the new flag with a 3/5 majority despite giving Gore less than a quarter of the vote in 2000. The new flag also won majorities in Oxford and Starkville precincts where Gore lost. In Rankin County, the new flag lost decidedly but still ran 15+ points ahead of Gore in a few areas of the county.
Those that supported George Bush in 2000 and voted for the new flag in 2001 were mostly white, urban or suburban, higher-income, and often college-educated. These voters overwhelmingly supported Republican candidates at the presidential and state levels at the turn of the century despite being more moderate on social and cultural issues.
What it tells us about Mississippi's voting patterns today
The flag referendum in 2001 ended up predicting future coalitions in Mississippi politics - at the presidential and state level. Socially conservative white voters in rural Mississippi that voted Democratic in the past either a) died or b) became Republican voters as the Democratic Party became increasingly associated with cultural liberalism. Urban white areas that voted Republican but were more socially moderate have became more willing to vote for Democratic candidates. This is due to a) many of the older voters in these precincts dying and being replaced by younger, liberal voters and b) voters in these precincts being turned off by Trump and thus voting for Democrats.
For decades in Mississippi, urban whites were more loyal to the Republican Party than rural whites despite being more moderate on cultural issues. Urban whites, typically being wealthier than rural whites, gravitated toward the Republican Party which has traditionally supported conservative fiscal policies such as low taxes on the upper-middle class.
Places today such as Fondren and Belhaven in Jackson are associated with being rare slices of white liberalism in Mississippi. But less than 20 years ago, Democrats would do worse there than they would in many rural white areas in NE Mississippi - this was true at the presidential and statewide level.
Presidential election analysis
Let's look at the 2000 and 2020 presidential election results in Mississippi. First, I'll look at 1) counties with the most Gore/old flag supporters and 2) precincts with a significant number of Gore/old flag supporters. I'll use the same precincts I did earlier except for the ones that I think have changed boundaries since 2000.
A big decrease in support for Democrats. Biden ran at least 10 points behind Gore in all 10 counties. Blacks make up a sizable percentage of the population in Calhoun and Marshall (Marshall is narrowly majority-minority) which give Democrats a solid base there --- minimizing a Tishomingo or Itawamba-level swing. Tishomingo County, which was just 1 point more Republican than the state in 2000, was 29 points more Republican than the state in 2020. It was a top 3 county for Trump while just being 40th for Bush in 2000. Itawamba and George, also on this list, were the other two counties in the top 3 for Trump.
Now here's the results at the precinct level.
Again, a shift away from the Democrats in all 11 precincts, often by quite a bit. In Alcorn County's Bethel community, Al Gore got 37% in 2000. Joe Biden got 2 votes out of 86 cast in 2020. Gore received over 40% in Itawamba County's Ryan community and Hancock County's Dedeaux community. But Biden was under 10% in both in 2020.
Next up are the 2000 and 2020 presidential results from counties where there was the largest % of Bush and new flag supporters. Then we'll take a look at the precinct-level results.
Hinds is the biggest mover here though much of this is demographic change and white flight. But some of it can attributed to more white voters in Jackson voting for the Democrats. Lafayette is the only county where Biden didn't gain a ton on Gore, though if Oxford has moved slightly away from Republicans, it's been offset by the rural precincts shifting away from Democrats. Rural Lafayette County is similar to parts of NE Mississippi where Gore won a sizable percent of the vote but where the old flag was heavily favored by voters. Madison and Rankin are a little less white than they were in 2000 (Madison 60% '00 --> 55% in 2019; Rankin 81% in 2000 --> 73% in 2019) which can at least somewhat explain the small shift toward the Democrats. Oktibbeha voted for Bush in 2000 but has now voted in four consecutive elections for Democratic presidential candidates.
Here are the precinct-level results. I merged the East and West Reservoir precincts and the East and West Crossgates precincts. Presumably, these precincts were split since 2000. Again, Nader results included with Gore in precincts where he broke 2%. These are marked with an asterisk.
Jackson's 14th precinct (Fondren) gave Biden the biggest increase from Gore. This is an area of Jackson that's seen much gentrification in the last two decades and has become linked to white Mississippi hipsterdom. Jackson's 32nd precinct, the wealthy Eastover neighborhood, also had a big jump from Gore to Biden. Biden ran 19 points ahead of Gore here. Jackson #8 and #9 (Millsaps/Belhaven) have also moved toward the Democrats at the presidential level in the 21st century. The precinct outside of the metro area on this sheet with the largest increase in Dem % was Thames Elementary in Hattiesburg.
Statewide election analysis
Next, we'll take a look at statewide elections. First, with the Gore/old flag counties and precincts, we'll examine the 2003 attorney general race and compare it to the 2019 gubernatorial race. Then, with the Bush/new flag counties and precincts, we'll compare the 2003 and 2019 gubernatorial races.
Jim Hood was first elected to the attorney general's office in 2003. Blacks and rural whites were the base of his broad coalition and he won easily with 63% of the vote. But this coalition slowly began to break down over the next dozen years in his AG runs before completely collapsing in the 2019 gubernatorial election. By 2011, he was still winning by 20+ point margins, but his rural performance was beginning to worsen. He lost Hancock County in 2011 and was declining in NE Mississippi (though still sweeping the region with majorities). In 2015, he lost Tishomingo County, the most ancestral of the ancestral Democratic counties in NE Mississippi and barely won majorities in other counties in the region. He lost George County by nearly 30 points. In 2019 when he ran for governor, the dam burst. He lost by gigantic margins in NE Mississippi and in places like George and Hancock counties. The rural, culturally conservative white voters that long had been a key piece of his coalition had finally ditched the Democratic Party for good. When he first entered state politics, he was very popular among white voters without a degree. By 2019, they overwhelmingly rejected him.
Here's the precinct-level results from 2003 and 2019:
A giant decrease in Hood support from 2003 to 2019. He won all of these by at least double-digits in 2003 and lost all by 20 or more in 2019. He failed to get a quarter of the vote in most. While attorney general is a downballot race, Hood still won by 25+ points in 2003 while the Republican candidate for governor won by 7 points and the Republican candidate for lieutenant governor won by 24 points.
Next up are the Bush/new flag counties and precincts and the 2003 and 2019 gubernatorial elections. In 2003, Haley Barbour unseated incumbent Democrat governor Ronnie Musgrove. Barbour won by a somewhat comfortable margin considering he was the challenger; the final margin was 53% to 46% in his favor. While NE Mississippi and other rural parts of the state did shift toward Barbour, a big part of his coalition were urban/suburban white voters with a college degree. These voters overwhelmingly supported him over Musgrove.
Hinds with the largest change just as it was with the presidential results. And again, much of this is white flight related, but also can be somewhat attributed to a larger % of white voters in Jackson voting Democratic. Lafayette, Madison, and Oktibbeha all voted for Barbour in 2003 but Hood in 2019. Overall, Hood was a touch above Musgrove in the statewide vote with 47% to 46% for Musgrove.
Here's the precinct-level results:
Across the board, large improvements for Hood from Musgrove's total. In Jackson's 14th precinct, where Biden saw the largest increase from Gore, Hood ran 44 points ahead of Musgrove. Hood ran 30+ points ahead of Musgrove in much of NE Jackson and 20+ points ahead in slices of Madison, Gluckstadt, Flowood, Hattiesburg, and Oxford. College-educated white voters, which disproportionately backed both Bush and the new flag, were the demographic where Hood saw the most improvement compared to previous Democratic gubernatorial campaigns.
Conclusion
The 2001 flag referendum predicted future coalitions in Mississippi politics. Conservative, rural whites in NE Mississippi (and in places like Hancock and George counties) that stayed loyal to the Democratic Party for decades after the 1960s have almost completely abandoned the party in the last two decades. This is the case at both the presidential level and the statewide level. But at the same time, urban and suburban whites have moved somewhat to the Democrats at the presidential level. And in a competitive gubernatorial election (like the one in 2019), they can shift even harder toward the Democrats.
The problem for Mississippi Democrats is there are more rural, non-college whites than there are urban/suburban college-educated whites. And the former has moved faster and with larger margins toward the Republicans than the latter has moved toward Democrats.
While Mississippi isn't likely to vote blue at the presidential level anytime soon, it's not impossible to conceive of Democrats becoming competitive again in a gubernatorial election down the line. If Democrats win, urban/suburban college-educated white voters will be an important part of the coalition. However, given the population distribution of Mississippi (the state is one of the few in the U.S. that is majority-rural), the party will need to win over a decent number of rural whites to get a majority. Given the improvements in urban/suburban Mississippi, they no longer need to win majorities in counties like Tishomingo and George. But they can't afford to lose these areas by 50 and 60 points. This will be the big challenge for the state party in the coming years. Can they hold on to their new bloc of voters while making in-roads with the rural white voters that have ditched them in the 21st century?
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