Berry announcement
Scott Berry announced his retirement on Tuesday effective at the end of the year. The news came suddenly but wasn't necessarily a surprise ---- it's been rumored for several years that Berry might be close to wrapping things up and he never was one to coach until he was 70. It's of my opinion they should promote Christian Ostrander but still do a search just to see how the college baseball coaching industry views the position. But it's likely they just go ahead and announce Ostrander sometime early next week after giving Berry his week in the sun. And I'm fine with that.
The question now becomes how the staff rearranges itself. With the extra paid assistant getting passed, they have some flexibility. They could either promote one (or two) of the non-paid/off-the-field staff to a paid, on-the-field position. Or they could bring in someone from outside. Another question would be if Ostrander continues to coach pitching or if he brings in someone that can help with that side of things. My hope is he remains hands-on with USM arms since he's proven to be an elite pitching coach. But it might be helpful to bring in someone with a pitching development background when Ostrander has to tend to head coach duties.
ULM weekend
There wasn't a ton you could take from the last weekend at Monroe other than the team did what they were supposed to do. USM outscored ULM 33-6 over the three games --- in large part thanks to a 19-0 bludgeoning of the Warhawks on Saturday. Starting pitching was good with all three starters going at least 5 innings and allowing 2 or fewer runs. Justin Storm closed things out on Sunday with 3 Ks in an inning of work. He's now struck out 16 batters of the last 28 he's faced. Beginning with the Sunday at Coastal, he has yet to allow a run and has only put 4 baserunners on.
ULL preview
Louisiana(-Lafayette) comes in 35-18 and 17-10 in the league. The Cajuns are playing good baseball at the moment having swept their last 2 weekends and nearly took a series from Coastal Carolina before that. They're back in the at-large picture and need this series most likely to be on the right side of the bubble.
ULL hits it pretty well and comes in to Hattiesburg with an OPS of .871 OPS. Catcher Julian Brock paces the offense with a 1.083 OPS and 11 HRs. He has a good chance to go somewhere on day 2 in the draft. Carson Roccaforte was the preseason SBC player of the year and enters the weekend with a .946 OPS and 4 HRs. He's also maybe the best defensive outfielder in the league. Kyle DeBarge is probably the best pro prospect on the team and plays shortstop. He has an OPS of .962 with 5 HRs and is currently top 50 on the 2024 ProspectsLive draft list. DeBarge has great bat-to-ball skills with an average of .357 and has K'd in fewer than 10% of his plate appearances. The Cajuns have 153 stolen bases on the year --- that's 3rd in the country. They're one of the most athletic teams in college baseball by all accounts.
On the mound, Jackson Nezuh gets the ball on Thursday. He has a 6.81 ERA but his WHIP is OK at 1.40 WHIP. He's given up 8 home run balls on the year which can explain this dichotomy somewhat. Nezuh will work in the 91-93 range with the fastball and is a transfer from Florida State. Carson Fluno will start on Friday and has a 4.38 ERA/1.41 WHIP. Fluno is a JUCO transfer and will be in the 90-92 range with the fastball and will also throw a curveball and a changeup. Saturday is up in the air after usual #3 starter Jake Hammond went down on Sunday with an injury.
Postseason picture
USM still has work to do from a hosting perspective. #28 in the RPI and 2nd in the Sun Belt won't be enough to get the job done. Most likely 2+ losses will end any chances of postseason baseball on 4th Street. It's going to have to be some combination of taking 2/3 vs. ULL and winning the conference tourney or sweeping ULL and losing in the finals of the conference tournament. 2 losses of any kind would keep the RPI from being high enough to be in the host mix. My rough calculation has USM just outside the top 20 with a sweep this weekend and around 27-28 with 2/3. However, this could go up (or down) depending on how other teams in this range fare in their series.
Outside of USM, Alabama and Auburn have put themselves in the hosting conversation and are within the magic 400-mile radius where USM could be bused. Both have very winnable/sweepable series with Ole Miss and Missouri at home respectively. If one or both sweep, they very well could host. This would allow for an alternative (and preferable) option to LSU within the 400-mile radius if USM were not to host. Something to keep an eye on.
Basketball Portal Kombat + Crowley return
Basketball's 2023-24 roster got a jolt this week with the announcement that Austin Crowley would return plus the transfer additions of Victor Iwuakor from UNLV and Nick Krass from Oregon State. As of now, Crowley is the only Sun Belt all-conference player that has announced he's returning. 2 are out of eligibility, Andrew Taylor transferred from Marshall to Mississippi State, and Jordan Brown from ULL is still testing the NBA Draft waters.
Iwuakor was a blue-chip prospect out of HS and profiles as a Whole Foods version of Denijay Harris. i.e. someone that's limited offensively (neither are 3-point threats) but can defend, score around the rim, and rebound. Both are 6'7 but Iwuakor is a bit bigger at 225 lbs vs. Harris at 203 lbs. He averaged 17 minutes a game at UNLV in 2023 with 3 points and 3.6 rebounds a game. Iwuakor has 1 year left to play and is a grad transfer.
Nick Krass prepped at Saint Patrick's in Biloxi and played his freshman year at Oregon State. Krass, 6'4, originally profiled as a 3-point specialist but actually put the ball on the floor sometimes in limited action in 2023. His FT rate (ability to get to the line) was around the D1 average and he took as many as 2s as he did 3s for the Beavers. His freshman year wasn't impressive but the hope is he was thrown into the fire too early at a Pac-12 cellar program and can become a solid Sun Belt contributor over time.
With the transfer additions, USM is now #155 in the Torvik rostercast tool which is #4 in the Sun Belt. On paper at least, this is a team that can compete for a bye in the Sun Belt tourney in 2024. And there's still a likelihood the staff adds reinforcements through the portal over the coming weeks and months (granted, so will other teams).
Sun Belt picture
Coastal leads the league at 20-7 thanks to their H2H tiebreaker with USM. ULL is 3 games back at 17-7. ULL could actually win the league with a sweep in Hattiesburg and Coastal being swept at home by Marshall. USM needs just 1 win this weekend to lock up a top 2 seed ---- which means avoiding facing an ace in the opening round (teams 7-10 will have to throw their #1 in the play-in game). Getting the #1 would require being one game better than Coastal over the weekend. The most likely way this happens is if USM sweeps and Coastal drops a game to Marshall (it's extremely unlikely they drop 2 given Marshall has lost 17/18 SBC games so 2/3 against ULL won't be enough).
3 teams are eliminated from making the conference tournament - Arkansas State, ULM, and Marshall. South Alabama still has a path but needs to sweep Arkansas State on the road and get lots and lots of help. #4 and #10 are separated between 2 games and getting in the top 6 is crucial to avoid the play-in. Having to play on Tuesday isn't a death knell but it does limit your ability to win the tourney because of the extra game and what it does for pitching depth.
Coastal and USM are locked in for June. Troy should be with a series win vs. App State at home. Texas State needs a sweep vs. ULM then to go on a run in Montgomery. ULL needs to win the series this weekend at USM and play well in Montgomery.
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