Mississippi primary runoff primer

Mississippi is holding two congressional primary runoffs today --- a rarity in the state (no Mississippi incumbent representative has lost a primary since 1948). Here's some things and places to watch.

Background

In the 3rd district, incumbent Michael Guest is running against challenger Michael Cassidy who would very much become a part of the unofficial "America First" caucus in Congress if elected. Guest voted for the 1/6 commission which is the main blemish against him among voters. There's expected to be a divide by education and income (and there was in the first election) with higher education and income voters likely to back Guest. In the 4th district, incumbent Steven Palazzo is running against Jackson County sheriff Mike Ezell. The coalitions are a bit more jumbled here than in the 3rd district race and income/education is thought to be less of a factor in voting.

MS-03 (R)

Metro Jackson (Hinds/Madison/Rankin): The three Jackson metro area counties made up nearly half of the primary vote on 6/7. Keep an eye on Hinds and Madison counties --- these are the highest socioeconomic status (SES) areas of the state. Guest ran well behind Bill Waller and Thad Cochran in places like NE Jackson and Highland Colony which have some of the highest education attainment and income numbers in the state. Waller broke 80% collectively in these precincts whereas Guest was just below a 2-1 margin. If Guest breaks 70% in Hinds and 60% in Madison, he's probably in good shape --- and also would mean he's probably where needs to be with other college-educated voters (i.e. Starkville, etc.). Rankin County has a lower SES as a whole than Hinds/Madison, but it's backed status quo/establishment candidates in the past (albeit less than Hinds and Madison). Guest would want to break 60% there as well as it made up nearly 30% of the primary vote on 6/7. 

Meridian (Lauderdale County): Meridian is the largest city outside of Jackson in the district and is where Cassidy set up shop once moving to the state. Lauderdale County made up 10% of the primary vote and was Cassidy's best county at 67-33 looking at head-to-head between him and Guest. Anything over 70% is a win for Cassidy.

Rural voters: Rural voters backed Cassidy by a little bit overall on 6/7 but it wasn't consistent across the board (although the SW part of the district was stronger for Cassidy). Some places like Scott County went strongly for Guest and others like neighboring Newton County was one of Cassidy's strongest counties. Rural, lower SES voters aren't a monolith, but if they swing one way or the other as a whole, it'll impact the result.

Bay Springs Beat 4: This is Mississippi's Dixville Notch. Typically it reports before any other precinct. Guest won it 53-44 on 6/7 with 57 ballots cast at the precinct. It might mean nothing, but any result that differentiates greatly from that could be a hint of what's to come.

MS-04 (R)

Jackson County: This is Ezell's home county on the east 1/3 of the Mississippi Gulf Coast and made up about 1/5 of the primary vote on 6/7. Ezell was 63-37 against Palazzo H2H here on 6/7 and anything above 70% in the runoff bodes well for him.

Hancock + Pearl River County: These two counties are where Ezell did the worst and where Clay Wagner (third-place finisher who endorsed Ezell) did best. Hancock and Pearl River are 2 of 3 counties in Mississippi where the majority of people weren't born in the state and align more with Louisiana than any other part of the state. How far Wagner's endorsement goes will be revealed here and Ezell needs to be around at least 30-35% to have a shot.

Pine Belt: The Pine Belt trio of counties (Forrest, Lamar, Jones) made up over a quarter of the primary vote on 6/7. Palazzo is expected to be stronger here based on Ezell having a lower name ID in the region because of his Coast base. If Ezell is in the mid 40s in the two Hattiesburg counties and is in the upper 50s in Jones, he could be on pace to win the runoff.