Note: RPI numbers from Warren Nolan
Secure (9 teams)
Tennessee - The Vols finished the regular season 49-7 overall and 25-5 in the SEC. They're #1 in the RPI. They'll be the #1 overall seed on selection day.
Virginia Tech - Virginia Tech swept Duke in Blacksburg to win the ACC regular season outright. They have a #4 RPI and will be a top 8 seed.
Stanford - Stanford won the Pac-12 regular season outright after sweeping USC and Oregon State losing 2 to UCLA. They're now solidly a top 8 and have overtaken Oregon State in my pecking order with the regular season title plus the head-to-head series win in Corvallis.
Oregon State - Oregon State lost a series at home at UCLA as well as their grip on the Pac-12 regular season title. This could move them behind Stanford on Selection Monday. However, they're still #2 in the RPI and are a lock to be a top 8.
Maryland - Maryland took 2 at Purdue (final game cancelled due to rain) and clinched the Big Ten regular season outright. They're now #3 in the RPI, in good shape for a top 8, and are secure as a host.
Miami (FL) - The Hurricanes took 2 from Notre Dame in Coral Gables solidifying them as a top 8 seed. They're #7 in the RPI and finished 20-10 in the ACC.
Louisville - Louisville won the series against Virginia at home and continue to put themselves in good position for a top 8 seed and are a lock as a host. The Cardinals are 18-11-1 in the ACC with a #9 RPI.
Texas A&M - The Aggies won their final regular season series against Ole Miss in Oxford. The RPI remains problematic at #21 but they have the SEC West outright title as their saving grace. They're in as a host and likely have the inside track at one of the final top 8 seeds.
Auburn - Auburn lost 2/3 at Kentucky which complicates their chances at a top 8 seed. However, they're still #6 in the RPI with a 16-13 SEC record. That's enough to be solidly a host with an outside chance of a top 8 seed if they can go on a run in Hoover.
Probable (3 teams)
Notre Dame - The Irish lost their series at Miami putting them at 16-11 in the ACC with an RPI of #17. They're still probably secure as a host though going 0-2 in the conference tourney could make things a little bit interesting.
Southern Miss - Southern Miss swept Middle Tennessee on the road and clinched the C-USA regular season title. The RPI is now #13 and the Q1 record is suddenly at a respectable 7-8. So long as there's not a 0-2 or 1-2 showing in the league tourney, there's likely to be June baseball on 4th Street.
Virginia - Virginia lost the series at Louisville but benefitted as many of the other host contenders self destructed. #15 RPI and a 17-13 ACC record should be enough as long as they don't go 0-2 in Charlotte.
Bubble (8 teams for 4 spots)
Oklahoma State - Oklahoma State won 2 of 3 at Baylor and remains in decent shape for a host. However, they're 4th in the Big 12 standings with an RPI of #18. They need to win a few at Globe Life to feel secure.
Texas State - Texas State is projected as a host in my field on the basis they won the #6 RPI league going away and have somewhat of a marquee non-con series win at Arizona. The RPI is an issue at #26. The Texas State vs. Georgia Southern argument is a fascinating one as Georgia Southern has the better RPI and H2H series win (in San Marcos) but Texas State won the league by 3 games.
TCU - This is another conference pick as TCU won the #3 RPI conference outright as Texas Tech lost 2 of 3 at home to Oklahoma. The RPI is in the 30s but we're assuming the winner of the Big 12 regular season title will get a site. No guarantee however with their RPI.
Gonzaga - Gonzaga gets the nod at #16 as the WCC regular season champion. It's a similar resumè to Texas State where the RPI is a problem but they have a league championship and a marquee non-con series win (sweep at Oklahoma State). They need a strong showing in Stockton in the conference tourney.
Arkansas - Arkansas finished with an impressive 18-12 SEC record but the RPI is in the 30s after a series loss to Alabama in Tuscaloosa. They need to hope the committee overlooks the RPI and that they believe conference record is a better indicator of the kind of team they have. The Hogs have to win a couple in Hoover to feel good about their chances of hosting.
Oregon - Oregon got back in the hosting mix with a sweep over Arizona in Eugene. The RPI is in decent shape for a West host at the moment at #19 but they are 4th in the Pac-12 which could be somewhat of an issue. They need a strong showing in Scottsdale.
LSU - LSU swept Vandy in Nashville to vault themselves in the hosting discussion. The RPI is outside the top 20 but they finished 4th in the SEC and got a bye in Hoover which is generally enough to earn a site. They can play their way in with the patented LSU SEC Tournament run this week.
Georgia Southern - Georgia Southern has an RPI of #10 but finished 3 games behind Texas State in the Sun Belt standings despite having the head-to-head series win. That last part is the main drawback on their resumè. I have Texas State ahead on my pecking order because of the domination in league play and the series win at Arizona (Georgia Southern did little in non-con) but you can also make the case for Georgia Southern based on their RPI and series win at Texas State.
In the Hunt
SEC/ACC teams at or around .500 in league play (Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, Georgia, North Carolina, Georgia Tech, Florida): These teams are all in the same bucket in the sense that they're either at .500 exactly or below in their league (Wake Forest is half a game ahead of .500 with a tie) and need a deep run in their conference tourney to host. Traditionally, .500 in league play isn't good enough to receive a site. If one of these teams get to the semifinals of their conference tourney, they're at least in the discussion for a host. A trip to the championship or winning the automatic bid could be enough to nudge them over the edge.
Texas - Texas swept Kansas to stay in the host mix. However, they're #22 in the RPI and finished 5th in the Big 12. They need a deep run at Globe Life to be one of the 16 announced on the Sunday night prior to the unveiling of the field of 64.
East Carolina - ECU won the AAC going away at 20-4 and has an RPI of 25 but they're 2-7 vs. Q1 and don't have a weekend series win over a regional-caliber opponent. They need to win the AAC tournament and hope the other contenders implode to have a shot.
No comments:
Post a Comment