NOTE: many of these stats, hypotheticals, graphs, etc. are assuming Little Rock and UT-Arlington leave the league as has been reported.
Map by Landon Howell. You can find that here.
After 25+ years in Conference USA, Southern Miss is leaving the league it joined as a charter member to join the Sun Belt. The university will officially join the conference by July 1, 2023 --- in time for the 2023 football season.
The move, widely expected after weeks of rumblings, is arguably the most consequential that the athletic department has made in the 21st century. Conference USA has been the only football conference the university has been a member of since joining the major college football/today's FBS ranks in the early 1960s. C-USA formed in 1995 and USM was the lone charter member (excluding UAB who did not play football at the time) that remained in the league. After a decade with all of the school's rivals moving on and the rise of the Sun Belt, most observers in Hattiesburg, regionally, and nationally agreed that it made little sense for Southern Miss to remain in the conference. Now, the Golden Eagles will join a more regional alignment where it has much more in common culturally with the other member institutions. Here's what it means going forward:
Football
The expanded Sun Belt will be a step up in football competition from Conference USA. Current C-USA's 4-year FPI average (2017-20) + incomplete 2021 results (2017-20) is 100 --- bottom of FBS. A Sun Belt with USM, Marshall, JMU, and Old Dominion is 3rd in the G5 behind the AAC and MWC and within striking distance of both for top conference in the G5. The Sun Belt has done a good job in producing elite G5 teams despite the lack of a NY6 bowl appearance in the conference. 6 Sun Belt teams (App x3, ULL x2, Coastal x1) have finished top 45 nationally in FPI since 2018 while C-USA has had none in that span. Coastal and App State are in position to finish in the top 45 in 2021.
*FPI doesn't track FCS so James Madison numbers are where they'd be in FBS from Massey (one of the two major ratings systems that tracks FBS and FCS together)
So, initially, the East will be the tougher of the two divisions by a bit. The 2017-21 average of the East is 86.3 compared to the west having an average of 100.1. 4 of the top 5 programs from 2017-21 will be in the East while 3 of the bottom 4 programs will be in the West. This spreadsheet also supports the idea that James Madison can be competitive immediately. Couple this with quality facilities, a robust budget, and good fan support (they'd be top 3-4 in football attendance in the new league at 23,000+), you see why they were added.
As noted earlier, Southern Miss will be a part of the west division in the Sun Belt. It will likely be a format identical to that of 2014-present C-USA --- 14 teams, 8-game schedule where you play each of the division opponents every year then rotate two cross-division opponents every 2 years. The yearly division games will be ULM, ULL, South Alabama, Texas State, Troy, and Arkansas State. USM will play 2 of the 7 east division opponents yearly. The trade-off for a regionally-sensible geographic alignment (5/6 division games will be drivable) is fewer trips to some of the neat college towns in the east like Boone, Harrisonburg, and Statesboro. But I think most people are fine with that given the geographical friendly nature of the new alignment.
Hypothetical 2023 Southern Miss football schedule
Non-conference schedules will be adjusted as the three remaining games against Troy will be cancelled. Sun Belt opponents have been a big part of the USM scheduling philosophy over the last several years (8 scheduled in 6 seasons counting the App cancellation in 2018). These games can no longer be counted on. Scheduling former C-USA foes could be a possibility to bridge this gap ----- in particular Louisiana Tech and possibly UAB, MTSU, and WKU. I would not advocate for a yearly series with LaTech but I do believe it makes sense to play them 5-6 a times a decade or so. UAB would be desirable as an AAC team however there would be need to mutual interest and that's been tough to get from some AAC teams in the past. LaTech, MTSU, and WKU as leftovers in a tough situation will be looking to fill games.
Basketball
The Sun Belt doesn't change much for Southern Miss men's basketball. C-USA 3.0 was a 1-bid league every year and this will be the case in an expanded Sun Belt unless one team were to put together a gaudy profile and land an at-large bid. The 4-year KenPom average (2018-2021) in C-USA is 0.08 --- i.e. a very slightly above average D1 conference. The 4-year KenPom average in Sun Belt without Little Rock and UT-Arlington and with Southern Miss, Marshall, ODU, and JMU is -1.79 --- a slightly below average D1 conference. But the reality is both are one bid conferences. The new Sun Belt will just be a touch easier one than C-USA in current form.
In terms of scheduling, some common non-con opponents will have to be replaced as they will now become league opponents. South Alabama has been an almost yearly game for decades that will be under the Sun Belt banner. UL-Lafayette, Troy, and ULM have been occasional OOC games that will also transition to conference games. This is where a continued relationship with Louisiana Tech through non-conference play would help. The Bulldogs make sense as a yearly opponent to replace the South Alabama + other SBC teams gap in scheduling. Southland teams in Louisiana are an option here as well.
Like C-USA, the Sun Belt plays an 18-game schedule in league play. It is assumed this arrangement will remain even with 14 teams. If so, USM will play 5 league teams twice and then 8 league teams once. South Alabama will serve as USM's traveling partner like Louisiana Tech does now. Teams will play in Hattiesburg on a Thursday then Mobile on a Saturday or vice versa. Below is a hypothetical 18-game USM Sun Belt conference schedule:
The Sun Belt has locked their conference tournament in Pensacola until 2025. USM will be in the league for at least two of these and then more if they decide to extend the deal. Pensacola is just 2.5 hours from Hattiesburg and is a very easy trip for fans interested in attending the event.
Baseball
Sun Belt baseball gets a boost from the addition of USM. While the overall average of the league doesn't jump up due to Marshall and James Madison largely offsetting USM (and even Old Dominion to a smaller degree), it is another at-large caliber program in the conference. The core of the expanded Sun Belt in baseball will be USM, South Alabama, Coastal, and ULL with the middle to upper middle class being Georgia Southern, Troy, Old Dominion, and Texas State. Then everyone else.
The 4-year Massey ranking average of the expanded Sun Belt will be below that of current C-USA ---- 102.6 in current C-USA to 116.9 in the revamped Sun Belt. But there's room for growth as programs like Coastal and ULL have underachieved during this span. The new Belt has essentially the same floor and ceiling as C-USA does now. A 1-bid league if teams are down and up to 4 bids (maaaaaaaaaybe 5 in a unique situation) if the top 4-6 programs are clicking.
The new Sun Belt will have some of the best fan support in college baseball and arguably the best outside of the SEC/ACC/Big 12 along with the PAC-12. From the last full season with 100% capacity (2019), the Belt had two top 20 attendance programs (ULL, USM) and five within the top 45 (ULL, USM, Coastal, South Al, Troy). Also, Texas State had an average of 1,397 in 2019 ---- right outside the top 50 on the NCAA site. This is a conference that will have 5-7 teams with real college baseball cultures which is very much a change of pace from Conference USA.
Like basketball, baseball will have to adjust their scheduling with several common opponents now becoming league games. Most notable is South Alabama which has been a midweek fixture for decades. The yearly home-and-home midweek series that takes place against the Jags will become a weekend series. This should be incredibly exciting given the proximity, series history, and competitiveness of the two programs. However, the drawback is that it takes away two games in the midweek that were easy to schedule each year. Some replacements for those 2 games could include an extra game with SE Louisiana, Nicholls, or possibly a local SWAC program like Jackson State. Even someone like a Samford or Northwestern State is on the table.
UL-Lafayette and Troy have also been frequent non-conference opponents both on the weekend and in the midweek. Again, like in football and basketball, Louisiana Tech makes sense as a team to replace some of these games. That rivalry really took off in 2021 and I believe it'd be mutually beneficial to play them regularly or at least semi-regularly in a weekend series or possibly a midweek game in Jackson (roughly halfway point). Given the long-standing relationship between Berry and Lane Burroughs, this feels within the realm of possibility or even likely. Rice and FAU would be other possibilities though less certain. Rice was a series that would have been valued 5+ years ago but they have been down for awhile and has a new staff with not as much connection to ours. FAU historically has stayed in South Florida early in the season. I would not expect these series to continue but we will have to wait and find out.
Expect to see a 30-game schedule (10 weekends) in the Sun Belt for baseball like C-USA has. The difference is you'll see a league schedule where you miss 3 teams in conference instead of 1 (a result of the Sun Belt now having 14 baseball-playing members instead of 12 in C-USA). My guess is USM will play each of the other 6 teams on the west side and then 4 of the 7 from the east side each year. This would mean that there will be some years where a matchup with Coastal Carolina isn't played. But most of the top programs are on the west side of the Sun Belt and the biggest RPI killers are in the east.
Hypothetical 2023 Southern Miss Sun Belt baseball schedule
The Sun Belt has a deal in place in Montgomery to play the conference baseball tournament there until at least 2024. USM's first season in Sun Belt baseball will be in 2024. My hope is that they will rotate between the campuses of the core teams in the league ----Hattiesburg, Conway, Mobile, Lafayette --- and possibly places like Statesboro, Troy and San Marcos. However, it remains to be seen if this will happen long term. Biloxi and Pensacola can also work as sites off campus.
Overall, my vision for Sun Belt baseball is one where the level of competition is comparable to that of current C-USA or hopefully a little better where 3-4 bids is the norm. Regardless, I think baseball in the Sun Belt will be more fun because of the yearly weekend series with schools like South Alabama and ULL. Plus, better fan support in the conference as a whole. South Al in particular really stands out as a series that could become one of the better rivalries in the country.
Budget
Here is the USA TODAY budget link for 2020: https://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/finances
USM is toward the bottom just like in C-USA but is at least within range of several other schools in the Sun Belt. ULM is in their own category. James Madison ranks at the top due to collecting a massive amount of student fees.
This is just tickets + contributions ---- which I think is a decent way to gauge support for a program. USM is firmly in the middle of the pack here. Troy ranks a little lower than their attendance would suggest but it's possible it's just a bad year for them. Old Dominion, while a commuter school, does enjoy significant support in the Tidewater region as evidenced in the sheet. Arkansas State leads in contributions though is in the bottom half of ticket sales.
Concluding thoughts
The Sun Belt makes sense for the University of Southern Mississippi at this point in time. When old school USM rivals like Memphis, Tulane, and ECU departed C-USA for the AAC, it left a conference that Southern Miss had little to nothing in common with. However, at the time, the Sun Belt still felt like a step down so the school remained in the league. In the last decade, the Sun Belt has created a clear identity ---- fun G5 football in smaller southern college towns with passionate fanbases ---- in a way that C-USA has not. It now makes sense for Southern Miss to join the league in a way it didn't around 2012/2013.
The move to the Sun Belt gives Southern Miss a chance to develop rivalries it hasn't been able to since the departure of Memphis, Tulane, and ECU. South Alabama, UL-Lafayette, and Troy are all drivable opponents with competitive athletic programs in the sports USM fans care about (football/basketball/baseball). USM fans will be able to relate to these teams in a way they didn't relate to C-USA 3.0.
Lastly, the Sun Belt gives USM a conference home where it can say it is geographically and culturally similar to the other member universities. USM and Hattiesburg fits in much better with university/town combos like Georgia Southern/Statesboro, App State/Boone, Arkansas State/Jonesboro, etc. than it does with FIU/Miami, UTSA/San Antonio, UTEP/El Paso, and the like. Even in the glory days of C-USA 1.0, it was not a geographically compact league with a shared culture. A public research university in Hattiesburg, Mississippi does not have much in common with a Jesuit school in Lincoln Park, Chicago (DePaul). The Sun Belt is a league almost entirely made up of public schools that are located in college towns or at least smaller cities. The days of being in a conference dominated by big city mega-commuter schools are now over.
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