Looking at the 20 potential host sites and how USM fits in the picture

This year in college baseball the 16 host selections are getting a new twist on how they're selected. 20 sites will be announced by the committee later this week and then these will be whittled down to 16 the night before the field of 64 is selected as is tradition. In the COVID season, there are several different factors that could come into play including geography and how leagues with limited (or no) non-conference play will be evaluated. I'll take a look at the teams I think there are likely to make the 20, those on the bubble, and then examine how the non-USM teams on the bubble look.

The 20

There are 16 teams that I believe are at least probable to make the initial list revealed by the committee. These are as follows:

DEFINITELY IN (11)

Arkansas

Mississippi State

TCU

Vanderbilt

Texas

Arizona

Tennessee

Ole Miss

Texas Tech

Oregon

Notre Dame

PROBABLY IN (5)

Charlotte

East Carolina

Florida

Stanford

Pittsburgh

BUBBLE (10 for 4 spots)

South Carolina

Miami (FL)

Louisiana Tech

Southern Miss

Oregon State

UC Irvine

UCLA

Florida State

Georgia Tech

Louisville

Numbers from Warren Nolan.

Limited or regionalized non-conference

The burning question is how the committee will approach leagues that have no, limited, or regionalized non-conference play. Out of the 10 teams on my bubble, 4 played limited non-con (the ACC teams) and 3 played a very regionalized non-conference (Oregon State, UCI, UCLA). This has impacted the RPI of these teams which has historically been the backbone of the selection process.

In a normal year, the ACC would build up gaudy win-loss records in non-conference play which would boost the RPI of their teams. This is important because your opponents' winning % is 50% of the RPI formula. For example, if Florida State beats a 40-16 Louisville that's going to be more valuable in the RPI than if Louisville is 34-22. With limited non-conference play, ACC teams have beat up one another and brought their records and winning percentages down more than they would be in a normal year. This has hurt the ACC's RPIs across the board.

Most teams on the West Coast have played close to a full non-conference but one that is very regional in nature due to travel restrictions. UCLA didn't leave the state of California until April 23rd. UC Irvine will not play a regular season game outside of California. Oregon State did not travel east of Phoenix in the non-conference slate. While this doesn't impact the RPI as much as the ACC's decision to go from 30 to 36 conference games, it does limit the pool of possible opponents. Most years these teams would travel east (or bring in teams from other parts of the country) to boost the RPI. But that wasn't possible this season and has hurt their RPI to a degree. 

How the committee addresses these leagues and teams is perhaps the most pressing question in the 2021 selection process. If they look at the RPI like they would in a normal year, it hurts the chances of these teams and helps USM since the RPI is stronger than most on the bubble. If they write off the RPI and look more at conference records and in-person evaluations (regional advisory committees), that's going to be a positive for these teams in getting on the list of 20. 

The Louisiana Tech conundrum

How Louisiana Tech is evaluated will be of great importance to the chances of Southern Miss getting on the initial list of 20. Tech has a fairly strong resumé with a top 25 RPI and a winning record against the top 50 of RPI. But in the event they are left out, it's tough to see USM getting in. Tech has the edge in RPI, top 50 record, and head-to-head. The resumé is just objectively better and if Ruston isn't on the list, then it'd have to be assumed Hattiesburg isn't either. USM fans need to root for Tech to be on the list later this week.

South Carolina

South Carolina presents another problem. The Gamecocks have a host-worthy RPI but a .500 record in league play. It's extraordinarily rare for a .500 team in conference play to be awarded a host site (Florida State was such a case in 2017) and unprecedented for a team with a losing record in conference play to get a site. They finish with Kentucky on the road and Tennessee at home. If the committee feels they can get to 16-14 in league play, they could make the list of 20. But they'd be banking on something that is far from a given.

Geography

In the COVID era, geography could very well come into play. There are going to be 2 sites announced in the 20 in Mississippi with Mississippi State and Ole Miss plus Louisiana Tech nearby and probably ahead of USM in the committee's eyes. The NCAA could choose sites where no other probable hosts are to limit travel. This would help UCLA and UC Irvine in Southern California where the nearest host site is Arizona or Stanford. And obviously would hurt USM's chances.

Conclusion

Southern Miss' best bet to make the initial list of 20 is that the NCAA sticks with a traditional selection process where the RPI is the foundation. If exceptions are made for the ACC and West Coast teams due to wacky scheduling, they could jump USM in the pecking order. Southern Miss has a good RPI compared to many of the contenders but in a year where the RPI has produced oddball results (such as Fairfield being top 10), the committee could opt to balance with geography or select a power conference team with a good record in their league.