Southern Miss WR coach and co-offensive coordinator Scotty Walden was named interim head coach this week following the abrupt departure of Jay Hopson. This after a 32-21 loss to South Alabama on Thursday night. Walden is an unconventional choice as interim but one that brings a lot of upside. Just 30, he was an offensive coordinator at Sul Ross State (2012) and East Texas Baptist (2013-15) --- both in Division 3. He then was promoted to head coach at ETBU which was a position he held for a year before coming to Hattiesburg. Focusing on the 2016 season at ETBU should give us some insight on the kind of style he'll bring for the remainder of this 2020 season. I'll look at three key components of WaldenBall: his gaudy offensive numbers, the pace of play, and his willingness to take risks (i.e. going for it on 4th down and two-point attempts). I'll also use the 2015 season (when he was OC) and the 2017 season (when he had left the program) to compare to the 2016 season where he had full reigns.
Offense
When you first look at the 2016 ETBU team, the first thing that jumps are the ridiculous offensive numbers. Out of 244 D3 teams, the Tigers ranked at the top or near the top in the most basic offensive stats including points per game (#1 with 49.9 ppg) and yards per game (#2 with 564 ypg). They fall a bit in tempo-adjusted stats like yards per play with 6.30 ypp (#28 overall). However, this is still well above average.
There was a disparity in offensive success when ETBU played teams with a winning record and when they played teams with a losing record. The four lowest YPP games were against the four teams they faced with a winning record. A game against NAIA SW Assemblies of God allowed ETBU to pad stats en route to an 85-23 shellacking. They also hung 70+ against 0-10 Howard Payne.
As shown in the chart below, ETBU managed about 26 points per game against teams with winning records. Their yards per play were at just a meager 4.63. Out of this group of 4 teams includes national champion Mary Hardin-Baylor and #11 Hardin-Simmons. The only game that ETBU won against a team with a winning record was a
33-23 contest against Southwestern University.
But against teams with a losing record they were almost unstoppable. They went 6-0 racking up 66 points a game while averaging 7+ yards per play. While they sputtered some against quality teams, they ran roughshod over the bad teams on their schedule.
As a whole, ETBU's offensive stats from 2016 are a bit deceiving. They rank at or near the top of the heap in D3 in total offense and in scoring. But this is because they padded their numbers against some very weak teams including a game against a team from the NAIA. When playing the top competition in their league, the offense wasn't nearly as effective.
Pace of Play
ETBU in 2016 played extraordinarily fast. They averaged 89.6 plays per game ranking second in the country behind only Iowa's Central College. This is made all the more impressive by the fact that they averaged less than 27 minutes of time of possession per game (near the bottom nationally). In terms of tempo, they ran a play about every 18 seconds. This was #1 in the country. For comparison, USM ran a play about every 27 seconds against South Alabama.
The chart below shows how many played you'd expect a Walden/ETBU offense to run based on the time of possession. And then it is compared with how many plays you'd expect USM to run based on the tempo against South Alabama.
So with an even split in time of possession (30:00), 2016 ETBU under Walden would be expected to run about 101 plays. Keep in mind that no FBS team has even come close to this number.
Marshall holds the record at just under 93 plays per game in 2012. In terms of plays per minute, ETBU averaged a whopping 3.36. Again, this is another unprecedented tempo statistic. No FBS team has ever matched this number.
Houston in 2012 came closest at 3.31 plays per minute. A Walden offense with 26 minutes of time of possession would still be expected to run about 11 more plays a game than USM with 34 minutes running the pace they did against South Alabama.
In 2015, when Walden was the OC, ETBU averaged 72 plays per game and ran a play just over every 21 seconds. When given the full reigns, he took things to the next level with tempo. The year after he left ETBU averaged about 80 plays a game and ran a play just under every 20 seconds. A decrease from 2016 but still above what they averaged in 2015 with Walden as OC.
Risks
Walden tried 2-point conversions and went for it on 4th down regularly in 2016 at ETBU. The Tigers scored 71 touchdowns and they went for two 35 times. That's nearly half of touchdowns where they opted not to kick it. The chart below shows when ETBU tended to go for 2 and when they didn't based on the margin at the time.
In 36 of the PAT tries, 19 were when ETBU led by 17 or more (a Tiger blowout). Kicking the extra point instead of going for 2 is the logical move so it doesn't look like you're trying to run up the score. The other 17 were in close or competitive game situations. Most of the time these 2-point tries came early in the game in relatively low-leverage situations. If the game was close and it was late, ETBU generally kicked the extra point, unless it made strategic sense to go for 2 (for example, they did go for the two-pointer in the 4th against Louisiana College where a successful try would have it made it a 3-possession game). ETBU scored 6 touchdowns when losing by more 17 or more and they went for two in all of these instances. Compared to the previous year, ETBU just went for two 4 times out of 56 touchdowns. The next year when Walden left ETBU did not attempt a single 2-point conversion.
Walden was also aggressive in going for it on 4th down. ETBU went for it on 4th down a total of 38 times in 2016 (nearly 4 times a game). That's out of 90 fourth down decisions meaning they went for it 42% of the time. The charts below breaks down the situations when ETBU went for it including distance, margin, time, and field position.
Distance
Margin
Time
What stands out? Walden and ETBU were very likely to go for it when the distance to make was 5 yards or less. When they were put in this position, they went for it 28 of 38 times (74%). When it was 6 yards or more, they went for it 10 of 41 times (24%). Still a high number given the situation. ETBU was also likely to go for it when the outcome was pretty much decided. In situations where they were up or down 17+, they went for it 17 of 26 times (65%). When the game was within 17 points (i.e. competitive) this number dropped to 33%. In terms of time, none of the quarters really dominate. ETBU went for it 21 times in the first half compared to 17 in the second half. A handful of these second half attempts were in blowout games. And lastly we have field position. Out of their 37 4th down attempts, 23 were between their opponents' 26-50, which is no man's land for a D3 team with a bad kicker. The attempts between their own 26-50 were generally closer to midfield than the 25. They went for it once at their own 10 on 4th and 1 which was the lone attempt inside their own 25.
The year prior with Walden as OC they just went for it on fourth 17 times. In 2017, with Walden out of the picture entirely, ETBU also went for it 17 times. Significant drops from 2016.
In short, ETBU went for it a bunch, but weren't completely reckless with it. In low-leverage moments, they were more aggressive with it. In high-leverage moments (close and/or late), they tamped it down some. Most attempts were on the opponents' side of the field and they only tried going for it deep in their own territory once when they just needed a yard. They were more likely to go for it in blowouts when the outcome wasn't in doubt. When the game was closer, they played it more conservatively, but were still far more aggressive than the average football team. Shorter distance to make, as expected, led to more attempts. A gain to make of 6 yards or more led to fewer 4th down attempts.
Conclusion
ETBU and Scotty Walden played a unique style in football characterized by lots of offense, high tempo, and taking risks. Whether or not the things he tried at ETBU makes its way to Hattiesburg in 2020 remains to be seen. Given that there's essentially nothing to lose at this point, it would make sense to incorporate some of these ideas for the remaining 11 games. What we will be watching is whether or not he goes full 2016 ETBU, compromises a bit, or keeps the same approach as game #1. While this super aggressive approach of tempo and risks could potentially backfire, it should at least make things very entertaining as USM could well be the college football version of 1990 Loyola Marymount in basketball.
