Electoral prospects for medical marijuana in Mississippi

Initiative 65 and 65A are the competing measures in Mississippi on the subject of medical marijuana.  65 is the citizen initiative while 65A is the legislative alternative. There will be two questions regarding this measure; the first question for approval of either and the second for the preference of 65 or 65A. For either initiative to be approved, the first question must win a majority (50%+1). If the first question has majority support, then the initiative with the most votes on the second question will become law. However, there is a catch. The initiative must win 40% of total ballots on the second question. In the event both 65 or 65A fail to get 40% of total ballots on the second question, then neither become law, even if the first question has a majority "EITHER" vote. I will attempt to explain the competing initiatives, both questions, and analyze whether or not 65 or 65A have a chance at being approved.

Background

65 was put on the ballot after getting the required signatures. The alternative, 65A, was put on the ballot by the legislature during the 2020 session. You can see the differences between the two initiatives in the photo below. Essentially, 65A is a more restrictive version of 65. Also, 65 has parameters already whereas 65A's specifics would be set by the legislature later.

This is the second time in recent years that an alternate measure has been added to the ballot. In 2015, Initiative 42A competed with Initiative 42 on a school funding measure. In the end, the first question of that measure failed to received a majority which made the result of the second question irrelevant.

First question

The first question is essentially an up or down vote on if you want a medical marijuana program in the state of Mississippi. The image below from Ballotpedia summarizes the two options on the first question of this measure.

So, medical marijuana supporters will choose "either measure" and opponents will choose "neither measure." Simple enough.

Analysis

The first question is likely to have majority support from the Mississippi electorate. A poll conducted in May had support for medical marijuana in Mississippi at 81%. But the way the question was worded was odd and potentially increased support in the poll. A better indicator would be the 2016 medical marijuana initiative in Arkansas. In 2016, Arkansas voters approved a medical marijuana proposal with 53% of the vote. Arkansas is not a perfect comparison for Mississippi, but both are rural states in the south that have minimal economic development. 

We'll take a look at the white vote and the black vote for Arkansas' Issue 6. Then attempt to extrapolate this to the Mississippi electorate. White voters in the Natural State aren't quite as conservative as those in Mississippi. But they are generally right-leaning and support the Republican Party. Black voters in both states vote for Democrats at roughly the same clip.

I took results from 20 heavily-white precincts across the state and tried to balance urban and rural areas. It was about a 50-50 split. Black voters went for the initiative at around a 70-30 split. I did a similar thing with these precincts by taking a smattering of precincts from around the state while balancing urban and rural in an attempt to get the most accurate demographic breakdown.

Based on this, we can expect white voters in Mississippi to vote "EITHER" on the first question at about a 45-50% rate. As previously mentioned, Mississippi whites are a little more conservative than Arkansas whites, which might keep it a little below the 50% mark. But opinion on this continues to trend in the direction of support (this initiative actually failed in 2012 in Arkansas before winning in 2016). So we'll predict it in this range for white voters. Support among African-American voters is likely to be in the 70-75% range based on the Arkansas results. "EITHER" may run a few points ahead of the 70% AA support in Arkansas because of the aforementioned shifting opinion nationally on this issue.

Now we need to extrapolate this to the Mississippi electorate. Mississippi's voting-age population is 60% white and 40% non-white (with near 100% of the majority of this population being African-American). But whites tend to be registered to vote at a higher rate and tend to turn out in elections at a higher rate. So we'll say the electorate on November is 68% white and 32% non-white. Mike Espy has said that his 2018 election was a turnout of 68/32 so this should be close or maybe even exact. When plugging in 47.5% white support and 72.5% non-white support (i.e. the middle between the two ranges given), you get "EITHER" winning 55.5% of the vote on the first question. 

If you use the ranges for both whites (45-50%) and non-whites (70-75%) it gives you a result anywhere from 53-58%. Remember that the Arkansas initiative got 53% in 2016 but Mississippi's high minority population means it has a good chance to eclipse that mark in November.

In terms of geography, we can expect counties that support Joe Biden to vote "EITHER" at a higher rate than counties that vote for Donald Trump. Support for Hillary Clinton showed a moderate positive correlation with support for medical marijuana in Arkansas. Issue 6 ran behind Clinton in only four counties in Arkansas; all of these were minority-majority. The counties where Issue 6 ran the farthest ahead of Clinton were typically heavily-white counties where Trump did extremely well. Issue 6 ran behind the statewide % in these areas but still ran 30+ points ahead of Clinton.

Based on what we saw in Arkansas, we can say that the map for the first question on Mississippi's Initiative 65 is likely to resemble the map from the 2011 Personhood amendment (AKA Life Begins at Fertilization question) but in reverse.

This amendment was defeated with "NO" getting 57%. The amendment did the poorest in majority-minority counties and urban/suburban counties. The inverse of this seems bound to happen on the medical marijuana initiative in November. "EITHER" is likely headed for majorities in the Delta and other majority-minority counties, even if it underperforms Biden's support as we saw from similar counties in Arkansas. Additionally, urban whites will back this amendment at a higher rate than rural whites. Look for "EITHER" to win majorities in urban counties that Republicans usually win. Madison, Harrison, Forrest, Lafayette, etc. As well as overperforming in a purple county like Oktibbeha or a blue county like Hinds. The first question probably won't win a majority in heavily-white Republican counties like George and Itawamba (among others) but should still run well ahead of Biden.

TL;DR on Question #1

"EITHER" is likely to get a majority of votes on the first question. Arkansas voters supported a medical marijuana initiative in 2016 at 53% and Mississippi has a more favorable electorate than the Natural State due to the large African-American population in the state. This is even considering the fact that Mississippi whites are to the right of Arkansas whites. National support for medical marijuana has also increased since 2016. 53-58% is the range that I'm predicting based on the demographic of Mississippi's electorate and the results from 2016 in Arkansas.

Counties with a large minority population are expected to back the amendment given the results in heavily-black precincts in Arkansas. Urban whites are also likely to support the amendment and Jackson, the Coast, and the college communities will give majorities for the first question of this measure. 

Second question

Remember, "EITHER" must receive a majority on the first question for this to even matter. All of this is assuming this does indeed happen.

The second question is asking which of the two competing initiatives that the voter prefers. The image below from Ballotpedia explains the second question and what voting for either option means. 

Analysis

This is where things get tricky to predict. The results of Initiative 42 in 2015 provide somewhat of a look at what to expect with the results of this measure. On the second question from I42, 42 got 47%, 42A got 33%, and 20% of ballots were left blank. The blank ballots are very significant. What happened was many of the people that voted "NEITHER" on the first question left the second question blank thinking they didn't need to fill that out because they were against both initiatives. So, 42 received a fairly strong plurality even though most people probably preferred 42A over it. This was because of the blank ballots. More on how this is important to 65/65A later.

Below is an expectancy chart of blank ballots based on the % of "NEITHER" votes on the first question. It's impossible to get the exact number of blank ballots for people who voted "NEITHER" on the first question in 2015 but 35-40% is a ballpark estimate based on the statewide, county, and precinct results. 

In the event that the first question passes, then if 20% or fewer of ballots are left blank, one of the initiatives is guaranteed to pass. This is because one of them mathematically must hit the magic 40% number required. I estimated earlier that the first question would get about 53-58% support meaning the "NEITHER" vote would be 42-47% range. Based on the chart, we would expect about 17-19% of ballots to be left blank on the second question. Which as mentioned earlier would guarantee the passage of one of the initiatives. The fewer blank ballots there are on question #2 the better the chances that one of these measures gets through. 

The question is now which of the initiatives will the voters choose. In the poll referenced earlier, 52% said they supported 65 while 23% said they supported 65A. In 2015, the vast majority of people (possibly around 90%) that voted "EITHER" on the first question backed 42 over 42A. This year, though, it's possibly that a sizable number want medical marijuana but want it tightly restricted and are for 65A. We can expect most people that vote for the first question to support 65 but to what extent? The split of this vote will determine which of the two will become law.

Below is a chart that shows what % of the "EITHER" vote is needed on the second question for 65 to get to 40% of the total vote.

Based on the range earlier (53-58%), Initiative 65 would need about 70-75% of people that voted "EITHER" on the first question to vote 65 on the second. It should be noted that in 2015 that some people marked 42 on the second question while voting "NEITHER" or leaving the first question blank. We know this because in several precincts and even counties 42 had more votes than "EITHER." Given the confusing nature of the competing measures, we can expect this to happen again to some degree, but it's impossible to pin an exact number or percentage down. Initiative 65 is likely to finish above 65A on the second question. As noted earlier, a significant chunk of people that would vote 65A on Q2 will leave it blank. If same the trends from 2015's Init42 happen with medical marijuana in 2020, then about 35-40% of "NEITHER" voters on the first question will leave the second blank. We can safely assume that voters that leave the 2nd question blank would overwhelmingly support 65A over 65. Whereas close to 100% of "EITHER" voters will vote on the 2nd question (whether that be for 65 or 65A). Precincts and counties that strongly supported "EITHER" on the school funding measure in 2015 had few blanks or undervotes compared to precincts and counties that voted heavily for "NEITHER" on the first question. TL;DR on the Question #2It's difficult to say what will happen here because of the competing measures, but 65 has to be considered the favorite over 65A. People that would vote 65A are much more likely to leave the second question compared to 65 supporters who are almost certain to vote on the second question. Most people that vote "EITHER" on the first question will support 65 over 65A but the big mystery is to what extent. If it's closer to a 50/50 split, then 65A is in excellent shape. But if 65 can get 75% of "EITHER" voters then it's probable to win. This is assuming blank ballots are in line with what they were in 2015 with Initiative 42. The fewer blank ballots on the second question increase the chances of 1) some sort of program getting approved and 2) 65A finishing ahead of 65. Obviously, the higher % of "EITHER" voters on the first question means there's a better chance that 65 finishes ahead of 65A.

Conclusion

One of these two initiatives stand a good chance of being approved. Based on the Arkansas results in 2016 and adjusting them for Mississippi's demographics, support for the first question is likely to receive the majority required. This is the hard part. Initiative 42 in 2015 received the 40% required on the second question in 2015 but "EITHER" did not win the majority needed on the first question. On the second question, thanks to quirky laws regarding alternate initiatives, 65 or 65A could become law even if up to 60% of voters do not vote for it. We can expect a sizable percentage of voters to leave the second question blank. It's hard to estimate the exact percentage of blank ballots on the 2nd question, but somewhere between 15 and 20 percent seems about right. Close to all of these will be medical marijuana opponents who would choose 65A over 65 if they had a choice. Because of this, 65A is likely to finish behind 65 on the 2nd question.