Host Watch (5/22/22)

Note: RPI numbers from Warren Nolan

Secure (9 teams)

Tennessee - The Vols finished the regular season 49-7 overall and 25-5 in the SEC. They're #1 in the RPI. They'll be the #1 overall seed on selection day.

Virginia Tech - Virginia Tech swept Duke in Blacksburg to win the ACC regular season outright. They have a #4 RPI and will be a top 8 seed.

Stanford - Stanford won the Pac-12 regular season outright after sweeping USC and Oregon State losing 2 to UCLA. They're now solidly a top 8 and have overtaken Oregon State in my pecking order with the regular season title plus the head-to-head series win in Corvallis.

Oregon State - Oregon State lost a series at home at UCLA as well as their grip on the Pac-12 regular season title. This could move them behind Stanford on Selection Monday. However, they're still #2 in the RPI and are a lock to be a top 8. 

Maryland - Maryland took 2 at Purdue (final game cancelled due to rain) and clinched the Big Ten regular season outright. They're now #3 in the RPI, in good shape for a top 8, and are secure as a host.

Miami (FL) - The Hurricanes took 2 from Notre Dame in Coral Gables solidifying them as a top 8 seed. They're #7 in the RPI and finished 20-10 in the ACC.

Louisville - Louisville won the series against Virginia at home and continue to put themselves in good position for a top 8 seed and are a lock as a host. The Cardinals are 18-11-1 in the ACC with a #9 RPI.

Texas A&M - The Aggies won their final regular season series against Ole Miss in Oxford. The RPI remains problematic at #21 but they have the SEC West outright title as their saving grace. They're in as a host and likely have the inside track at one of the final top 8 seeds.

Auburn - Auburn lost 2/3 at Kentucky which complicates their chances at a top 8 seed. However, they're still #6 in the RPI with a 16-13 SEC record. That's enough to be solidly a host with an outside chance of a top 8 seed if they can go on a run in Hoover.

Probable (3 teams)

Notre Dame - The Irish lost their series at Miami putting them at 16-11 in the ACC with an RPI of #17. They're still probably secure as a host though going 0-2 in the conference tourney could make things a little bit interesting.

Southern Miss - Southern Miss swept Middle Tennessee on the road and clinched the C-USA regular season title. The RPI is now #13 and the Q1 record is suddenly at a respectable 7-8. So long as there's not a 0-2 or 1-2 showing in the league tourney, there's likely to be June baseball on 4th Street.

Virginia - Virginia lost the series at Louisville but benefitted as many of the other host contenders self destructed. #15 RPI and a 17-13 ACC record should be enough as long as they don't go 0-2 in Charlotte.

Bubble (8 teams for 4 spots)

Oklahoma State - Oklahoma State won 2 of 3 at Baylor and remains in decent shape for a host. However, they're 4th in the Big 12 standings with an RPI of #18. They need to win a few at Globe Life to feel secure.

Texas State - Texas State is projected as a host in my field on the basis they won the #6 RPI league going away and have somewhat of a marquee non-con series win at Arizona. The RPI is an issue at #26. The Texas State vs. Georgia Southern argument is a fascinating one as Georgia Southern has the better RPI and H2H series win (in San Marcos) but Texas State won the league by 3 games.

TCU - This is another conference pick as TCU won the #3 RPI conference outright as Texas Tech lost 2 of 3 at home to Oklahoma. The RPI is in the 30s but we're assuming the winner of the Big 12 regular season title will get a site. No guarantee however with their RPI.

Gonzaga - Gonzaga gets the nod at #16 as the WCC regular season champion. It's a similar resumè to Texas State where the RPI is a problem but they have a league championship and a marquee non-con series win (sweep at Oklahoma State). They need a strong showing in Stockton in the conference tourney.

Arkansas - Arkansas finished with an impressive 18-12 SEC record but the RPI is in the 30s after a series loss to Alabama in Tuscaloosa. They need to hope the committee overlooks the RPI and that they believe conference record is a better indicator of the kind of team they have. The Hogs have to win a couple in Hoover to feel good about their chances of hosting.

Oregon - Oregon got back in the hosting mix with a sweep over Arizona in Eugene. The RPI is in decent shape for a West host at the moment at #19 but they are 4th in the Pac-12 which could be somewhat of an issue. They need a strong showing in Scottsdale.

LSU - LSU swept Vandy in Nashville to vault themselves in the hosting discussion. The RPI is outside the top 20 but they finished 4th in the SEC and got a bye in Hoover which is generally enough to earn a site. They can play their way in with the patented LSU SEC Tournament run this week. 

Georgia Southern - Georgia Southern has an RPI of #10 but finished 3 games behind Texas State in the Sun Belt standings despite having the head-to-head series win. That last part is the main drawback on their resumè. I have Texas State ahead on my pecking order because of the domination in league play and the series win at Arizona (Georgia Southern did little in non-con) but you can also make the case for Georgia Southern based on their RPI and series win at Texas State.

In the Hunt

SEC/ACC teams at or around .500 in league play (Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, Georgia, North Carolina, Georgia Tech, Florida): These teams are all in the same bucket in the sense that they're either at .500 exactly or below in their league (Wake Forest is half a game ahead of .500 with a tie) and need a deep run in their conference tourney to host. Traditionally, .500 in league play isn't good enough to receive a site. If one of these teams get to the semifinals of their conference tourney, they're at least in the discussion for a host. A trip to the championship or winning the automatic bid could be enough to nudge them over the edge.

Texas - Texas swept Kansas to stay in the host mix. However, they're #22 in the RPI and finished 5th in the Big 12. They need a deep run at Globe Life to be one of the 16 announced on the Sunday night prior to the unveiling of the field of 64.

East Carolina - ECU won the AAC going away at 20-4 and has an RPI of 25 but they're 2-7 vs. Q1 and don't have a weekend series win over a regional-caliber opponent. They need to win the AAC tournament and hope the other contenders implode to have a shot. 

Host Watch (5/16/22)

Note: RPI numbers from Warren Nolan

Secure (6 teams)

Tennessee - The Vols are #1 in RPI, 45-7 (22-5 in the SEC), and lead the SEC by 5 games. They are securely in as a host, as a top 8, and likely are the #1 overall seed when the bracket is unveiled on Selection Monday.

Oregon State - The Beavers lost 2 in Tucson but are still #2 in RPI and lead the Pac-12. They're now only 1 game ahead of Stanford and don't have the H2H and there's a decent chance they don't win the PAC-12 regular season now. Stanford has USC at home while Oregon State has UCLA at home. If Stanford sweeps USC and Oregon State takes 2/3 vs. UCLA then Stanford wins the league. Oregon State still remains a safe host and top 8 despite this, however. 

Auburn - Auburn won 2 against Alabama this past weekend with the third being cancelled because of weather. They're 15-11 in the SEC which isn't "elite" but are #4 in RPI which is. They're safely a host regardless and a top 8 if they care of business at Kentucky this upcoming weekend. 

Virginia Tech - The Hokies took 2 against Louisville and are solidly a host and a top 8 with a #5 RPI. They're tied with Miami (FL) in the loss column (last 2 games at ND cancelled) and have the H2H against them. They have a good chance at the outright ACC title with Duke in Blacksburg for the last weekend.

Miami (FL) - The Hurricanes lost 2 in Tallahassee against Florida State but still lead the ACC (albeit on a technicality) and have a #8 RPI. They're safely a host and probably a top 8 barring a meltdown in these last 2 weeks.

Louisville - Louisville is #11 in RPI with a 16-10-1 record in the ACC. So long as they aren't swept at home by Virginia, they're a host, and could still be a host even in that worst-case scenario. 

Probable (8 teams)

Vanderbilt - Vandy's SEC record (14-13) ain't great but their RPI (3) is. If they win 2/3 against LSU at home, they're a host, and could get a host at 15-15 in league play with a deep run in Hoover. If they sweep, a top 8 is plausible.

Georgia - Georgia is similar to Vandy in that they're 14-13 in SEC play but have a gaudy RPI at #7. But they play Missouri in Athens to finish the year and if they sweep that (Mizzou is 0-12 in SEC road games), they're a 17-13 SEC team with a top 10 RPI. That's a host. 16-14 could make things interesting possibly but I'd still lean yes on June baseball in Athens.

Maryland - Maryland's main case is they're #10 in RPI and lead the Big Ten. The other metrics (top 50, SOS) aren't great. This is assuming they take care of business in West Lafayette against Purdue this upcoming weekend. They are tied with Rutgers and have the H2H tiebreaker. If they were to stumble this weekend and Rutgers won that regular season title, that'd hurt them as the Big Ten championship is one of the highlights on their resumè.

Oklahoma State - The Cowboys looked like a secure host and top 8 until they were swept at home this weekend by Texas Tech. Now there's not really a path for them to win the Big 12 regular season and the top 8 seed looks dicey at best. They still probably host, but losing the series at Baylor this weekend could put them on the host bubble.

Stanford - Stanford is 18-9 in the Pac-12 with a 13 RPI. With Oregon State losing two in Tucson, this gives them a pretty decent chance to win the regular season title. They could be in the secure category but I suppose if they were to lose 2/3 to USC and go 0-2 in Scottsdale they might not be safe. 

Notre Dame - Notre Dame is 15-9 in the ACC with a #14 RPI. That's a host most every year. They finish the year in Coral Gables with Miami. Postseason baseball will likely be in South Bend so long as they aren't swept there. 

Texas A&M - The Aggies are similar to Arkansas in that their record in the SEC is good but the RPI isn't great. That being said, #19 is a lot better than #29, and they're probably in good shape to host even if they lose the final series against Ole Miss in Oxford.

Arkansas - Arkansas is a conundrum. They have the RPI of a 2-seed at #29 (thanks to two games with #299 UAPB and two games with #281 Grambling) but they're 17-10 in the SEC and are tied for the lead in the SEC West with Texas A&M (they don't have the H2H).  They finish the season with Alabama in Tuscaloosa. It's hard to see the committee leaving a team with 19 regular season SEC wins out of a host even if the RPI isn't in great shape. My gut is they'd host but it'd be a unique case.

Bubble (5 teams for 2 spots)

Virginia - The Cavaliers are #15 in RPI with a 16-11 ACC record. If the season ended today, they're a host, but still have a series at Louisville. Though that'll help their RPI so long as they're not swept, losing 2/3 would drop them to 17-13 in the ACC with an RPI probably in the top 15-20 range which isn't a lock. If they win that series, they're in. If they lose, they might have to win a game in Charlotte in the tourney. Losing all 3 at Louisville could put them on the wrong side of the hosting bubble with a 16-14 league record and RPI outside the top 16. 

Florida State - The Noles got a big series win over Miami to boost their host chances. The ACC record still isn't great at 15-12 but they're #17 in RPI which puts them in the discussion. At a minimum, they need to win the final regular season series at North Carolina or make the semis (possibly finals) of the ACC tourney to get a site. Doing both of these things would put them in good shape.

Southern Miss - Southern Miss is #20 in the RPI and leads Conference USA by 2 games and needs just 1 win in Murfreesboro against MTSU to clinch the regular season title. The best hope is that finishing top 16 in the RPI along with a regular season title in a top 5 RPI conference title is enough to get June baseball on 4th Street. 54/55 of teams that have won a top 10 league regular season title plus finished with a top 16 RPI in the BBCOR era (2011-) have gotten to host. The top 50 metric isn't great (4-7) but the top 100 record is solid at 19-13. Either a sweep at MTSU or 2/3 and a conference tourney title may be needed. 

Gonzaga - Gonzaga is 2 games clear of San Diego and Portland in the WCC and have an RPI of #24. They finish the year at San Diego and need just 1 win to clinch the WCC regular season title. They're in a position where 2 of 3 there might get them in the top 16 and that's likely enough to host given what I said about regular season champions in top 10 leagues (the WCC is #10) with a top 16 RPI. It's also possible the committee gives them leeway if they finish a little outside the top 16 given they're a west team. They also have a sweep at Oklahoma State which is a major feather in the cap in non-con play that no team in this category can really match.

Big 12 regular season champion (Texas Tech or TCU) - This is purely a conference pick and going off the fact that the Big 12 regular season champion generally gets a site. Oklahoma State being swept opened up chaos in this league and now TCU and Texas Tech are in the best position to win the regular season. However, both teams have RPIs in the 30s which is not conducive to host. TCU can win the regular season if Texas Tech goes 2/3 at home vs. Oklahoma or worse (TCU has already finished their Big 12 schedule and hosts Santa Clara in Fort Worth this weekend). This would be a fascinating case and reminiscent of UCLA receiving a host in 2011 with an RPI in the 30s but having won the Pac-12 regular season. TCU has the tiebreaker with Texas Tech and Oklahoma State in the event of a tie. 

In the hunt (7 teams)

Dallas Baptist - DBU has metrics you'd expect of a no-brainer host: #7 RPI and 12-9 vs. top 50. But they're third in the MVC standings and they're likely to stay there after this weekend (2 games behind Evansville for second).  They're at least in the discussion because of the RPI and Q1 record but a third place team in the Missouri Valley does not host.

Georgia Southern - Georgia Southern is similar to DBU. They have a top 10 RPI but aren't going to win their league unless they sweep the final weekend and Texas State is swept at Georgia State (they do have the H2H with the Bobcats in San Marcos). They're in the mix because of the RPI but the lack of a regular season title hurts them.

Florida - The Gators really needed a sweep at Mizzou and got just 2/3. They're #16 in the RPI but 13-14 in the SEC. If they sweep South Carolina at home the final weekend, they could be be on the host bubble as an SEC team with a winning league record and top 16 RPI. 15-15 likely isn't enough barring a deep run or tourney title in Hoover.

Texas - Texas is 11-10 in the Big 12 but they do have a top 20 RPI. If they were to sweep Kansas in Austin, that gets them to 14-10 in the league which is host-range. Any loss to the Jayhawks keeps them out most likely because that'd put them at 13-11 in Big 12 play (not enough) and a RPI likely outside the top 20. 

UC Santa Barbara - UCSB is here because they have a top 30 RPI and are going to win the regular season and automatic bid of their conference. That being said, they finish with UC Riverside and CS Bakersfield (both sub-270 RPIs) to end the year. Even if they sweep through those teams 6-0, the RPI won't be there despite a 44-11 record and 27-3 record in the Big West. 

Oregon - Oregon is 15-12 in the Pac-12 with an RPI in the high 20s. They have a midweek in Eugene against Gonzaga and then finish with Arizona at home. If they were to sweep through that undefeated, it might be enough to get them on the host bubble with a RPI surge. 

Texas State - Texas State has everything you want in a host except the RPI is #30. They've completely dominated the Sun Belt at 23-4, have a marquee non-con series win (@Arizona), and the Q1 record is solid at 7-7 and Q1/Q2 is good at 13-8. That being said, 30 RPIs in the Sun Belt don't host. If they were to take the series at Georgia State and win the conference tourney in Montgomery, it might be enough to get them in the discussion.