Musings on realignment

                                

                              The Apocalypse™

Texas and Oklahoma's impending move to the SEC will set off a chain of effects in college sports. Most of which I think will be very bad. These are a few thoughts I have on the impacts it will have on college baseball and football scheduling. Neither of these topics are getting much attention from the national media.

Baseball

This will further consolidate power in the SEC and strengthen even more the league's status as the best league in college baseball. Earlier this month, I tried to quantify the strongest programs in college baseball by using a formula where national champions earn 16 points in a year, runner-ups 8, CWS participants 4, regional winners 2, and regional participants 1. Since LSU's title in 2009, 7 of the top 12 programs are/will be SEC members.

It'll be the SEC and everyone else. Needless to say it isn't good for competitive balance in the sport. The biggest losers in this will be new money programs like TCU and Texas Tech which have risen to power in the 21st century. Even if they join a power league like the PAC-1x, it will be difficult to get top in-state talents to play in front of 150 people in Los Angeles and Berkeley over thousands in true college baseball towns on an ESPN platform. Same goes for Oklahoma State. This will also make things difficult for other non-SEC premier programs that share states with SEC programs (FSU and Miami in Florida, Clemson in South Carolina, etc.). But for TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor, and Oklahoma State in particular, it seems unlikely that these programs will be able to recruit a similar caliber roster that they have in the past. That's bad for college baseball. 

Another concern is a potential 36-game league schedule for the SEC in baseball. This would chop off two weekends of non-con. Granted, this is far from a given, and the ACC going to a temporary 36-game schedule in 2021 and tanking their RPIs in the process may scare the SEC from doing so. Still, something to keep an eye on.

Football Scheduling

The G5 should be sounding the alarm bells as reports of 9 and 10-game SEC conference schedules have surfaced. The SEC is one of two power conferences that still plays 4 non-con games (along with the ACC). However, it seems certain one of these games will be cut with the potential of two games being cut. This means fewer guarantee games and revenue sources for group of 5 and FCS programs. Additionally, more and more power schools have loaded up on P5 games in the late 2020s. Alabama, Florida, and Georgia all have at least 2 power non-con games scheduled from 2025-2032. With a 2 or 3-game non-con slate, that leaves room for only 1 or possibly 0 games against G5 and FCS. This is potentially disastrous for schools at the lower levels. Kent State, for example, made almost 13% of their athletic revenue in FY19 off of buy games at big schools. It would be difficult for that athletic department to survive without these games. Not only from a budgetary standpoint, but the elimination of buy games isn't good from a competitive standpoint. Players at schools like Southern Miss should be able to play at a venue like Bryant-Denny or Tiger Stadium during their career. It's a great experience for the athletes and playing at an Alabama or LSU is used as a pitch during recruiting. Aside from fewer buy games, it also takes away quirky road games for SEC teams. Under a 9-game or 10-game league schedule, games like Oklahoma at Tulane, Arkansas at Memphis, and Mississippi State at Southern Miss are less likely to happen. That isn't fun or good for the sport in my opinion. Closing off the G5 and FCS in schedule will just quicken the transition to a power-only superleague. Bad!