Mississippi primary runoff primer

Mississippi is holding two congressional primary runoffs today --- a rarity in the state (no Mississippi incumbent representative has lost a primary since 1948). Here's some things and places to watch.

Background

In the 3rd district, incumbent Michael Guest is running against challenger Michael Cassidy who would very much become a part of the unofficial "America First" caucus in Congress if elected. Guest voted for the 1/6 commission which is the main blemish against him among voters. There's expected to be a divide by education and income (and there was in the first election) with higher education and income voters likely to back Guest. In the 4th district, incumbent Steven Palazzo is running against Jackson County sheriff Mike Ezell. The coalitions are a bit more jumbled here than in the 3rd district race and income/education is thought to be less of a factor in voting.

MS-03 (R)

Metro Jackson (Hinds/Madison/Rankin): The three Jackson metro area counties made up nearly half of the primary vote on 6/7. Keep an eye on Hinds and Madison counties --- these are the highest socioeconomic status (SES) areas of the state. Guest ran well behind Bill Waller and Thad Cochran in places like NE Jackson and Highland Colony which have some of the highest education attainment and income numbers in the state. Waller broke 80% collectively in these precincts whereas Guest was just below a 2-1 margin. If Guest breaks 70% in Hinds and 60% in Madison, he's probably in good shape --- and also would mean he's probably where needs to be with other college-educated voters (i.e. Starkville, etc.). Rankin County has a lower SES as a whole than Hinds/Madison, but it's backed status quo/establishment candidates in the past (albeit less than Hinds and Madison). Guest would want to break 60% there as well as it made up nearly 30% of the primary vote on 6/7. 

Meridian (Lauderdale County): Meridian is the largest city outside of Jackson in the district and is where Cassidy set up shop once moving to the state. Lauderdale County made up 10% of the primary vote and was Cassidy's best county at 67-33 looking at head-to-head between him and Guest. Anything over 70% is a win for Cassidy.

Rural voters: Rural voters backed Cassidy by a little bit overall on 6/7 but it wasn't consistent across the board (although the SW part of the district was stronger for Cassidy). Some places like Scott County went strongly for Guest and others like neighboring Newton County was one of Cassidy's strongest counties. Rural, lower SES voters aren't a monolith, but if they swing one way or the other as a whole, it'll impact the result.

Bay Springs Beat 4: This is Mississippi's Dixville Notch. Typically it reports before any other precinct. Guest won it 53-44 on 6/7 with 57 ballots cast at the precinct. It might mean nothing, but any result that differentiates greatly from that could be a hint of what's to come.

MS-04 (R)

Jackson County: This is Ezell's home county on the east 1/3 of the Mississippi Gulf Coast and made up about 1/5 of the primary vote on 6/7. Ezell was 63-37 against Palazzo H2H here on 6/7 and anything above 70% in the runoff bodes well for him.

Hancock + Pearl River County: These two counties are where Ezell did the worst and where Clay Wagner (third-place finisher who endorsed Ezell) did best. Hancock and Pearl River are 2 of 3 counties in Mississippi where the majority of people weren't born in the state and align more with Louisiana than any other part of the state. How far Wagner's endorsement goes will be revealed here and Ezell needs to be around at least 30-35% to have a shot.

Pine Belt: The Pine Belt trio of counties (Forrest, Lamar, Jones) made up over a quarter of the primary vote on 6/7. Palazzo is expected to be stronger here based on Ezell having a lower name ID in the region because of his Coast base. If Ezell is in the mid 40s in the two Hattiesburg counties and is in the upper 50s in Jones, he could be on pace to win the runoff.

Host Watch (5/22/22)

Note: RPI numbers from Warren Nolan

Secure (9 teams)

Tennessee - The Vols finished the regular season 49-7 overall and 25-5 in the SEC. They're #1 in the RPI. They'll be the #1 overall seed on selection day.

Virginia Tech - Virginia Tech swept Duke in Blacksburg to win the ACC regular season outright. They have a #4 RPI and will be a top 8 seed.

Stanford - Stanford won the Pac-12 regular season outright after sweeping USC and Oregon State losing 2 to UCLA. They're now solidly a top 8 and have overtaken Oregon State in my pecking order with the regular season title plus the head-to-head series win in Corvallis.

Oregon State - Oregon State lost a series at home at UCLA as well as their grip on the Pac-12 regular season title. This could move them behind Stanford on Selection Monday. However, they're still #2 in the RPI and are a lock to be a top 8. 

Maryland - Maryland took 2 at Purdue (final game cancelled due to rain) and clinched the Big Ten regular season outright. They're now #3 in the RPI, in good shape for a top 8, and are secure as a host.

Miami (FL) - The Hurricanes took 2 from Notre Dame in Coral Gables solidifying them as a top 8 seed. They're #7 in the RPI and finished 20-10 in the ACC.

Louisville - Louisville won the series against Virginia at home and continue to put themselves in good position for a top 8 seed and are a lock as a host. The Cardinals are 18-11-1 in the ACC with a #9 RPI.

Texas A&M - The Aggies won their final regular season series against Ole Miss in Oxford. The RPI remains problematic at #21 but they have the SEC West outright title as their saving grace. They're in as a host and likely have the inside track at one of the final top 8 seeds.

Auburn - Auburn lost 2/3 at Kentucky which complicates their chances at a top 8 seed. However, they're still #6 in the RPI with a 16-13 SEC record. That's enough to be solidly a host with an outside chance of a top 8 seed if they can go on a run in Hoover.

Probable (3 teams)

Notre Dame - The Irish lost their series at Miami putting them at 16-11 in the ACC with an RPI of #17. They're still probably secure as a host though going 0-2 in the conference tourney could make things a little bit interesting.

Southern Miss - Southern Miss swept Middle Tennessee on the road and clinched the C-USA regular season title. The RPI is now #13 and the Q1 record is suddenly at a respectable 7-8. So long as there's not a 0-2 or 1-2 showing in the league tourney, there's likely to be June baseball on 4th Street.

Virginia - Virginia lost the series at Louisville but benefitted as many of the other host contenders self destructed. #15 RPI and a 17-13 ACC record should be enough as long as they don't go 0-2 in Charlotte.

Bubble (8 teams for 4 spots)

Oklahoma State - Oklahoma State won 2 of 3 at Baylor and remains in decent shape for a host. However, they're 4th in the Big 12 standings with an RPI of #18. They need to win a few at Globe Life to feel secure.

Texas State - Texas State is projected as a host in my field on the basis they won the #6 RPI league going away and have somewhat of a marquee non-con series win at Arizona. The RPI is an issue at #26. The Texas State vs. Georgia Southern argument is a fascinating one as Georgia Southern has the better RPI and H2H series win (in San Marcos) but Texas State won the league by 3 games.

TCU - This is another conference pick as TCU won the #3 RPI conference outright as Texas Tech lost 2 of 3 at home to Oklahoma. The RPI is in the 30s but we're assuming the winner of the Big 12 regular season title will get a site. No guarantee however with their RPI.

Gonzaga - Gonzaga gets the nod at #16 as the WCC regular season champion. It's a similar resumè to Texas State where the RPI is a problem but they have a league championship and a marquee non-con series win (sweep at Oklahoma State). They need a strong showing in Stockton in the conference tourney.

Arkansas - Arkansas finished with an impressive 18-12 SEC record but the RPI is in the 30s after a series loss to Alabama in Tuscaloosa. They need to hope the committee overlooks the RPI and that they believe conference record is a better indicator of the kind of team they have. The Hogs have to win a couple in Hoover to feel good about their chances of hosting.

Oregon - Oregon got back in the hosting mix with a sweep over Arizona in Eugene. The RPI is in decent shape for a West host at the moment at #19 but they are 4th in the Pac-12 which could be somewhat of an issue. They need a strong showing in Scottsdale.

LSU - LSU swept Vandy in Nashville to vault themselves in the hosting discussion. The RPI is outside the top 20 but they finished 4th in the SEC and got a bye in Hoover which is generally enough to earn a site. They can play their way in with the patented LSU SEC Tournament run this week. 

Georgia Southern - Georgia Southern has an RPI of #10 but finished 3 games behind Texas State in the Sun Belt standings despite having the head-to-head series win. That last part is the main drawback on their resumè. I have Texas State ahead on my pecking order because of the domination in league play and the series win at Arizona (Georgia Southern did little in non-con) but you can also make the case for Georgia Southern based on their RPI and series win at Texas State.

In the Hunt

SEC/ACC teams at or around .500 in league play (Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, Georgia, North Carolina, Georgia Tech, Florida): These teams are all in the same bucket in the sense that they're either at .500 exactly or below in their league (Wake Forest is half a game ahead of .500 with a tie) and need a deep run in their conference tourney to host. Traditionally, .500 in league play isn't good enough to receive a site. If one of these teams get to the semifinals of their conference tourney, they're at least in the discussion for a host. A trip to the championship or winning the automatic bid could be enough to nudge them over the edge.

Texas - Texas swept Kansas to stay in the host mix. However, they're #22 in the RPI and finished 5th in the Big 12. They need a deep run at Globe Life to be one of the 16 announced on the Sunday night prior to the unveiling of the field of 64.

East Carolina - ECU won the AAC going away at 20-4 and has an RPI of 25 but they're 2-7 vs. Q1 and don't have a weekend series win over a regional-caliber opponent. They need to win the AAC tournament and hope the other contenders implode to have a shot. 

Host Watch (5/16/22)

Note: RPI numbers from Warren Nolan

Secure (6 teams)

Tennessee - The Vols are #1 in RPI, 45-7 (22-5 in the SEC), and lead the SEC by 5 games. They are securely in as a host, as a top 8, and likely are the #1 overall seed when the bracket is unveiled on Selection Monday.

Oregon State - The Beavers lost 2 in Tucson but are still #2 in RPI and lead the Pac-12. They're now only 1 game ahead of Stanford and don't have the H2H and there's a decent chance they don't win the PAC-12 regular season now. Stanford has USC at home while Oregon State has UCLA at home. If Stanford sweeps USC and Oregon State takes 2/3 vs. UCLA then Stanford wins the league. Oregon State still remains a safe host and top 8 despite this, however. 

Auburn - Auburn won 2 against Alabama this past weekend with the third being cancelled because of weather. They're 15-11 in the SEC which isn't "elite" but are #4 in RPI which is. They're safely a host regardless and a top 8 if they care of business at Kentucky this upcoming weekend. 

Virginia Tech - The Hokies took 2 against Louisville and are solidly a host and a top 8 with a #5 RPI. They're tied with Miami (FL) in the loss column (last 2 games at ND cancelled) and have the H2H against them. They have a good chance at the outright ACC title with Duke in Blacksburg for the last weekend.

Miami (FL) - The Hurricanes lost 2 in Tallahassee against Florida State but still lead the ACC (albeit on a technicality) and have a #8 RPI. They're safely a host and probably a top 8 barring a meltdown in these last 2 weeks.

Louisville - Louisville is #11 in RPI with a 16-10-1 record in the ACC. So long as they aren't swept at home by Virginia, they're a host, and could still be a host even in that worst-case scenario. 

Probable (8 teams)

Vanderbilt - Vandy's SEC record (14-13) ain't great but their RPI (3) is. If they win 2/3 against LSU at home, they're a host, and could get a host at 15-15 in league play with a deep run in Hoover. If they sweep, a top 8 is plausible.

Georgia - Georgia is similar to Vandy in that they're 14-13 in SEC play but have a gaudy RPI at #7. But they play Missouri in Athens to finish the year and if they sweep that (Mizzou is 0-12 in SEC road games), they're a 17-13 SEC team with a top 10 RPI. That's a host. 16-14 could make things interesting possibly but I'd still lean yes on June baseball in Athens.

Maryland - Maryland's main case is they're #10 in RPI and lead the Big Ten. The other metrics (top 50, SOS) aren't great. This is assuming they take care of business in West Lafayette against Purdue this upcoming weekend. They are tied with Rutgers and have the H2H tiebreaker. If they were to stumble this weekend and Rutgers won that regular season title, that'd hurt them as the Big Ten championship is one of the highlights on their resumè.

Oklahoma State - The Cowboys looked like a secure host and top 8 until they were swept at home this weekend by Texas Tech. Now there's not really a path for them to win the Big 12 regular season and the top 8 seed looks dicey at best. They still probably host, but losing the series at Baylor this weekend could put them on the host bubble.

Stanford - Stanford is 18-9 in the Pac-12 with a 13 RPI. With Oregon State losing two in Tucson, this gives them a pretty decent chance to win the regular season title. They could be in the secure category but I suppose if they were to lose 2/3 to USC and go 0-2 in Scottsdale they might not be safe. 

Notre Dame - Notre Dame is 15-9 in the ACC with a #14 RPI. That's a host most every year. They finish the year in Coral Gables with Miami. Postseason baseball will likely be in South Bend so long as they aren't swept there. 

Texas A&M - The Aggies are similar to Arkansas in that their record in the SEC is good but the RPI isn't great. That being said, #19 is a lot better than #29, and they're probably in good shape to host even if they lose the final series against Ole Miss in Oxford.

Arkansas - Arkansas is a conundrum. They have the RPI of a 2-seed at #29 (thanks to two games with #299 UAPB and two games with #281 Grambling) but they're 17-10 in the SEC and are tied for the lead in the SEC West with Texas A&M (they don't have the H2H).  They finish the season with Alabama in Tuscaloosa. It's hard to see the committee leaving a team with 19 regular season SEC wins out of a host even if the RPI isn't in great shape. My gut is they'd host but it'd be a unique case.

Bubble (5 teams for 2 spots)

Virginia - The Cavaliers are #15 in RPI with a 16-11 ACC record. If the season ended today, they're a host, but still have a series at Louisville. Though that'll help their RPI so long as they're not swept, losing 2/3 would drop them to 17-13 in the ACC with an RPI probably in the top 15-20 range which isn't a lock. If they win that series, they're in. If they lose, they might have to win a game in Charlotte in the tourney. Losing all 3 at Louisville could put them on the wrong side of the hosting bubble with a 16-14 league record and RPI outside the top 16. 

Florida State - The Noles got a big series win over Miami to boost their host chances. The ACC record still isn't great at 15-12 but they're #17 in RPI which puts them in the discussion. At a minimum, they need to win the final regular season series at North Carolina or make the semis (possibly finals) of the ACC tourney to get a site. Doing both of these things would put them in good shape.

Southern Miss - Southern Miss is #20 in the RPI and leads Conference USA by 2 games and needs just 1 win in Murfreesboro against MTSU to clinch the regular season title. The best hope is that finishing top 16 in the RPI along with a regular season title in a top 5 RPI conference title is enough to get June baseball on 4th Street. 54/55 of teams that have won a top 10 league regular season title plus finished with a top 16 RPI in the BBCOR era (2011-) have gotten to host. The top 50 metric isn't great (4-7) but the top 100 record is solid at 19-13. Either a sweep at MTSU or 2/3 and a conference tourney title may be needed. 

Gonzaga - Gonzaga is 2 games clear of San Diego and Portland in the WCC and have an RPI of #24. They finish the year at San Diego and need just 1 win to clinch the WCC regular season title. They're in a position where 2 of 3 there might get them in the top 16 and that's likely enough to host given what I said about regular season champions in top 10 leagues (the WCC is #10) with a top 16 RPI. It's also possible the committee gives them leeway if they finish a little outside the top 16 given they're a west team. They also have a sweep at Oklahoma State which is a major feather in the cap in non-con play that no team in this category can really match.

Big 12 regular season champion (Texas Tech or TCU) - This is purely a conference pick and going off the fact that the Big 12 regular season champion generally gets a site. Oklahoma State being swept opened up chaos in this league and now TCU and Texas Tech are in the best position to win the regular season. However, both teams have RPIs in the 30s which is not conducive to host. TCU can win the regular season if Texas Tech goes 2/3 at home vs. Oklahoma or worse (TCU has already finished their Big 12 schedule and hosts Santa Clara in Fort Worth this weekend). This would be a fascinating case and reminiscent of UCLA receiving a host in 2011 with an RPI in the 30s but having won the Pac-12 regular season. TCU has the tiebreaker with Texas Tech and Oklahoma State in the event of a tie. 

In the hunt (7 teams)

Dallas Baptist - DBU has metrics you'd expect of a no-brainer host: #7 RPI and 12-9 vs. top 50. But they're third in the MVC standings and they're likely to stay there after this weekend (2 games behind Evansville for second).  They're at least in the discussion because of the RPI and Q1 record but a third place team in the Missouri Valley does not host.

Georgia Southern - Georgia Southern is similar to DBU. They have a top 10 RPI but aren't going to win their league unless they sweep the final weekend and Texas State is swept at Georgia State (they do have the H2H with the Bobcats in San Marcos). They're in the mix because of the RPI but the lack of a regular season title hurts them.

Florida - The Gators really needed a sweep at Mizzou and got just 2/3. They're #16 in the RPI but 13-14 in the SEC. If they sweep South Carolina at home the final weekend, they could be be on the host bubble as an SEC team with a winning league record and top 16 RPI. 15-15 likely isn't enough barring a deep run or tourney title in Hoover.

Texas - Texas is 11-10 in the Big 12 but they do have a top 20 RPI. If they were to sweep Kansas in Austin, that gets them to 14-10 in the league which is host-range. Any loss to the Jayhawks keeps them out most likely because that'd put them at 13-11 in Big 12 play (not enough) and a RPI likely outside the top 20. 

UC Santa Barbara - UCSB is here because they have a top 30 RPI and are going to win the regular season and automatic bid of their conference. That being said, they finish with UC Riverside and CS Bakersfield (both sub-270 RPIs) to end the year. Even if they sweep through those teams 6-0, the RPI won't be there despite a 44-11 record and 27-3 record in the Big West. 

Oregon - Oregon is 15-12 in the Pac-12 with an RPI in the high 20s. They have a midweek in Eugene against Gonzaga and then finish with Arizona at home. If they were to sweep through that undefeated, it might be enough to get them on the host bubble with a RPI surge. 

Texas State - Texas State has everything you want in a host except the RPI is #30. They've completely dominated the Sun Belt at 23-4, have a marquee non-con series win (@Arizona), and the Q1 record is solid at 7-7 and Q1/Q2 is good at 13-8. That being said, 30 RPIs in the Sun Belt don't host. If they were to take the series at Georgia State and win the conference tourney in Montgomery, it might be enough to get them in the discussion. 

Is there a fiscally left, socially right bloc in America?

if you sign on for "right wing social democracy," you better be mainly comfortable with the "right wing" part, bc that's the part we're likely to get

— Sam Adler-Bell (@SamAdlerBell) March 22, 2022

I saw this tweet and wanted to do some research if right-wing social views correlated at all with progressive views on material issues related to wages, healthcare, regulation, taxes, etc. My gut feeling was 'no' but I wanted to do some research and find out for sure.

What I did was look at every instance in the Trump era (defined as 2016-2020) where there was a measure related to the political economy AND a measure that I defined as social or cultural on the same ballot in a state. There are 26 listed in this spreadsheet with a few listed twice as some states had multiple measures related to the economy and/or cultural issues in the same cycle. I've tried to give a brief description of each that conveys accurately what it was intended to accomplish. For the purpose of this exercise, I'm defining political economy as anything related to housing, property/income/corporate/grocery taxation, renewable energy, wages, the regulation of industry, or the welfare state. Cultural or social issues would be defined as anything relating to racial quotas, LGBT protections, animal rights, guns, abortion, language rights, the death penalty, right-to-death, immigration, and voter ID (the last two may be stretches in calling it a social issue but both are definitely "wedge" topics in the U.S.).

I'm pulling these ballot measures from Ballotpedia's list in 2016, 2018, and 2020. The spreadsheet I used to work on this can be found here. I plugged in the county-level results for each of these to find the correlations. 

All of these have what you would consider "strong" correlations in support according to Quinnipiac's definition. Some are even close to a perfect 1-to-1 correlation in support.

The conclusion here is that there is little crossover in support for the "left" choice on economic measures and "right" choice on social or cultural measures (and vice versa). The vast majority of people that choose the "left" choice on an economic measure will choose the "left" choice on a social/cultural measure on the same ballot (and vice versa). So, there isn't an appetite for right-wing social democracy in the United States as Adler-Bell seems to imply. That could well change in the future but based on these ballot measures it doesn't exist at the moment.

Ballot splitting among Mississippi Choctaws in Neshoba County

This post is to detail a phenomenon in Mississippi electoral politics: ticket splitting among the Choctaw population in the state. I had noticed this awhile back while looking at old precinct results but never got around to doing a full analysis. Mississippi has a small native population ---- 0.6% as of the latest Census. The highest concentration of the native population in Mississippi is in Neshoba County about 1.5 hours NE of Jackson. According to the latest data from Dave's Redistricting, Neshoba County has 3 precincts with a heavy native-majority (85%+) which gives you a fairly good idea of how this group votes.

Mississippi is famously or perhaps infamously inelastic. Whites and blacks make up nearly all of the voting population and vote overwhelmingly for the Republican Party (in the case of whites) and or for the Democratic Party (in the case of blacks). Precincts where another race is a majority is exceedingly rare. This makes places like Choctaw reservations in Neshoba County or even Little Saigon in East Biloxi --- where Vietnamese migrants make up a substantial % but not quite a majority --- intriguing. 

2000

The 2000 election isn't archived in OpenElections (i.e. no tabular/csv) but it is on Internet Archive. You can find those results here. We can find what we need from the 3 heavily-Choctaw precincts and then subtracting those from the Neshoba total as a comparison. I have attached presidential, Senate, and House results from Neshoba County with totals from Choctaw and non-Choctaw precincts. Then the split between the result at the top of the ticket vs. downballot.

(note rounding if any results look 0.01% off)

So, Gore won Choctaw precincts in Neshoba by 20 points but Democratic candidates at the congressional level lost by 40-50 points. Gore was 60-70 points ahead of Democrats that were running in congressional elections which indicates an unusually high level of ticket splitting. As you see, it far exceeds the ticket splitting margin in non-Choctaw Neshoba precincts, the 3rd district as a whole, and Mississippi statewide. Democratic presidential candidates winning Choctaw precincts while congressional Democratic candidates losing or significantly underperforming in these same precincts will be a theme here.

2004

No analysis for 2004. There wasn't a race at the Senate level and the House race was uncontested by Democrats.

2008

NOTE: you will have to click the image for full size. Couldn't fit it on the page.

Note that the heavily-Choctaw Pearl River precinct was part of the Zephyrhill precinct from 2000. Neshoba results from 2008 can be found here or alternatively here. 

2008 provides perhaps the best example of ballot splitting among Mississippi Choctaws because there was a large disparity in the margin between the presidential and regular Senate election in these communities but not nearly as much in the special Senate or house election. The regularly-scheduled Senate race in 2008 featured an entrenched incumbent while the special Senate and house races did not. This indicates that Choctaws in Mississippi may favor Republican incumbents with seniority (that have worked on tribal issues previously) while otherwise voting for Democrats. 

The Choctaw precincts voted for Obama, Musgrove, and Gill --- all Democrats. However, they gave 30+ year Republican incumbent Thad Cochran a large majority. The D-R margin split in Choctaw precincts for the regular Senate election was -43.2% while the non-Choctaw Neshoba precincts had only a split of -6.4% with Mississippi as a whole at -9.7%. Choctaw voters in Neshoba County split their presidential and regular Senate ballots at a far higher rate than other voters in the county and state. However, the ticket splitting among Choctaw voters in the special Senate and House race were much closer to the county and Mississippi statewide rates, as you can see in the spreadsheet. The special Senate race featured incumbent Republican Roger Wicker that was appointed earlier in the year and the House seat was open ---- i.e. these races featured Republicans with either very little seniority or none. 

2012

(click for full/better quality)

Neshoba results from 2012 can be found here or here.

More of the same. Obama won the Choctaw precincts by 50 points while the Democratic candidate for Senate Albert Gore (not that one) only won these same precincts by 12.6 points. A 37.4 point gap. The ballot splitting in Neshoba County outside of the 3 precincts highlighted was almost nothing ---- the margin gap between the presidential race and Senate race was 0.01% (!). Statewide, Gore was just over 5 points behind Obama. Wicker ran 15 points behind McCain in Choctaw precincts in the 2008 special election but was almost 40 points ahead of Romney in 2012 after developing some seniority in the Senate. 

2016

(click for full/better quality)

Neshoba results from 2016 can be found here or here.

Again, huge overperformance by a downballot Republican. GOP incumbent Gregg Harper won the Choctaw precincts by 14 points while Trump lost these same communities by 46. A 60-point margin. While Harper did a bit better than Trump elsewhere in Neshoba County and in the 3rd district, it was nowhere near the overperformance he had in the heavily-Choctaw precincts.

2020

(click for full/better quality)

Neshoba results for 2020 can be found here or here.

So, the same pattern in the House race but not so much in the Senate race. Michael Guest outran Trump by nearly 30 points in the Choctaw precincts compared to only about 4 points in the non-Choctaw Neshoba precincts and about 8 points in the district as a whole. However, Hyde-Smith ran behind Biden by just about the same margin in the Choctaw precincts as she did in the non-Choctaw Neshoba precincts and in Mississippi statewide. This is interesting because Guest and Hyde-Smith got to DC at about the same time (Guest in a 2017 special and Hyde-Smith appointed then elected in 2018) so neither has much seniority over the other.

Conclusion

Mississippi Choctaws tend to favor Democrats at the presidential level. However, entrenched incumbents (which in Mississippi are almost always Republicans) downballot historically overperform at an unprecedented rate. Generally, these communities split their ballots at a comparable level to the rest of the state and county in races involving Republicans with little or no seniority.  My working theory on this is that incumbent politicians in Congress have the ability to work on tribal issues which wins the support of some Choctaw voters that prioritize this strongly. However, that is more of just a guess and other factors could very well be at play here. 

Guess what? Big news. I'm leaving. What Southern Miss going to the Sun Belt will mean going forward

NOTE: many of these stats, hypotheticals, graphs, etc. are assuming Little Rock and UT-Arlington leave the league as has been reported.

Map by Landon Howell. You can find that here.

After 25+ years in Conference USA, Southern Miss is leaving the league it joined as a charter member to join the Sun Belt. The university will officially join the conference by July 1, 2023 --- in time for the 2023 football season.

The move, widely expected after weeks of rumblings, is arguably the most consequential that the athletic department has made in the 21st century. Conference USA has been the only football conference the university has been a member of since joining the major college football/today's FBS ranks in the early 1960s. C-USA formed in 1995 and USM was the lone charter member (excluding UAB who did not play football at the time) that remained in the league. After a decade with all of the school's rivals moving on and the rise of the Sun Belt, most observers in Hattiesburg, regionally, and nationally agreed that it made little sense for Southern Miss to remain in the conference. Now, the Golden Eagles will join a more regional alignment where it has much more in common culturally with the other member institutions. Here's what it means going forward:

Football

The expanded Sun Belt will be a step up in football competition from Conference USA. Current C-USA's 4-year FPI average (2017-20) + incomplete 2021 results (2017-20) is 100 --- bottom of FBS. A Sun Belt with USM, Marshall, JMU, and Old Dominion is 3rd in the G5 behind the AAC and MWC and within striking distance of both for top conference in the G5. The Sun Belt has done a good job in producing elite G5 teams despite the lack of a NY6 bowl appearance in the conference. 6 Sun Belt teams (App x3, ULL x2, Coastal x1) have finished top 45 nationally in FPI since 2018 while C-USA has had none in that span. Coastal and App State are in position to finish in the top 45 in 2021.

 

*FPI doesn't track FCS so James Madison numbers are where they'd be in FBS from Massey (one of the two major ratings systems that tracks FBS and FCS together)

So, initially, the East will be the tougher of the two divisions by a bit. The 2017-21 average of the East is 86.3 compared to the west having an average of 100.1. 4 of the top 5 programs from 2017-21 will be in the East while 3 of the bottom 4 programs will be in the West. This spreadsheet also supports the idea that James Madison can be competitive immediately. Couple this with quality facilities, a robust budget, and good fan support (they'd be top 3-4 in football attendance in the new league at 23,000+), you see why they were added.

As noted earlier, Southern Miss will be a part of the west division in the Sun Belt. It will likely be a format identical to that of 2014-present C-USA --- 14 teams, 8-game schedule where you play each of the division opponents every year then rotate two cross-division opponents every 2 years. The yearly division games will be ULM, ULL, South Alabama, Texas State, Troy, and Arkansas State. USM will play 2 of the 7 east division opponents yearly. The trade-off for a regionally-sensible geographic alignment (5/6 division games will be drivable) is fewer trips to some of the neat college towns in the east like Boone, Harrisonburg, and Statesboro. But I think most people are fine with that given the geographical friendly nature of the new alignment. 

Hypothetical 2023 Southern Miss football schedule

Non-conference schedules will be adjusted as the three remaining games against Troy will be cancelled. Sun Belt opponents have been a big part of the USM scheduling philosophy over the last several years (8 scheduled in 6 seasons counting the App cancellation in 2018). These games can no longer be counted on. Scheduling former C-USA foes could be a possibility to bridge this gap ----- in particular Louisiana Tech and possibly UAB, MTSU, and WKU. I would not advocate for a yearly series with LaTech but I do believe it makes sense to play them 5-6 a times a decade or so. UAB would be desirable as an AAC team however there would be need to mutual interest and that's been tough to get from some AAC teams in the past. LaTech, MTSU, and WKU as leftovers in a tough situation will be looking to fill games.

Basketball 

The Sun Belt doesn't change much for Southern Miss men's basketball. C-USA 3.0 was a 1-bid league every year and this will be the case in an expanded Sun Belt unless one team were to put together a gaudy profile and land an at-large bid. The 4-year KenPom average (2018-2021) in C-USA is 0.08 --- i.e. a very slightly above average D1 conference. The 4-year KenPom average in Sun Belt without Little Rock and UT-Arlington and with Southern Miss, Marshall, ODU, and JMU is -1.79 --- a slightly below average D1 conference. But the reality is both are one bid conferences. The new Sun Belt will just be a touch easier one than C-USA in current form.

In terms of scheduling, some common non-con opponents will have to be replaced as they will now become league opponents. South Alabama has been an almost yearly game for decades that will be under the Sun Belt banner. UL-Lafayette, Troy, and ULM have been occasional OOC games that will also transition to conference games. This is where a continued relationship with Louisiana Tech through non-conference play would help. The Bulldogs make sense as a yearly opponent to replace the South Alabama + other SBC teams gap in scheduling. Southland teams in Louisiana are an option here as well. 

Like C-USA, the Sun Belt plays an 18-game schedule in league play. It is assumed this arrangement will remain even with 14 teams. If so, USM will play 5 league teams twice and then 8 league teams once. South Alabama will serve as USM's traveling partner like Louisiana Tech does now. Teams will play in Hattiesburg on a Thursday then Mobile on a Saturday or vice versa. Below is a hypothetical 18-game USM Sun Belt conference schedule:

The Sun Belt has locked their conference tournament in Pensacola until 2025. USM will be in the league for at least two of these and then more if they decide to extend the deal. Pensacola is just 2.5 hours from Hattiesburg and is a very easy trip for fans interested in attending the event.

Baseball

Sun Belt baseball gets a boost from the addition of USM. While the overall average of the league doesn't jump up due to Marshall and James Madison largely offsetting USM (and even Old Dominion to a smaller degree), it is another at-large caliber program in the conference. The core of the expanded Sun Belt in baseball will be USM, South Alabama, Coastal, and ULL with the middle to upper middle class being Georgia Southern, Troy, Old Dominion, and Texas State. Then everyone else. 

The 4-year Massey ranking average of the expanded Sun Belt will be below that of current C-USA ---- 102.6 in current C-USA to 116.9 in the revamped Sun Belt. But there's room for growth as programs like Coastal and ULL have underachieved during this span. The new Belt has essentially the same floor and ceiling as C-USA does now. A 1-bid league if teams are down and up to 4 bids (maaaaaaaaaybe 5 in a unique situation) if the top 4-6 programs are clicking.

The new Sun Belt will have some of the best fan support in college baseball and arguably the best outside of the SEC/ACC/Big 12 along with the PAC-12. From the last full season with 100% capacity (2019), the Belt had two top 20 attendance programs (ULL, USM) and five within the top 45 (ULL, USM, Coastal, South Al, Troy). Also, Texas State had an average of 1,397 in 2019 ---- right outside the top 50 on the NCAA site. This is a conference that will have 5-7 teams with real college baseball cultures which is very much a change of pace from Conference USA.

Like basketball, baseball will have to adjust their scheduling with several common opponents now becoming league games. Most notable is South Alabama which has been a midweek fixture for decades. The yearly home-and-home midweek series that takes place against the Jags will become a weekend series. This should be incredibly exciting given the proximity, series history, and competitiveness of the two programs. However, the drawback is that it takes away two games in the midweek that were easy to schedule each year. Some replacements for those 2 games could include an extra game with SE Louisiana, Nicholls, or possibly a local SWAC program like Jackson State. Even someone like a Samford or Northwestern State is on the table.

UL-Lafayette and Troy have also been frequent non-conference opponents both on the weekend and in the midweek. Again, like in football and basketball, Louisiana Tech makes sense as a team to replace some of these games. That rivalry really took off in 2021 and I believe it'd be mutually beneficial to play them regularly or at least semi-regularly in a weekend series or possibly a midweek game in Jackson (roughly halfway point). Given the long-standing relationship between Berry and Lane Burroughs, this feels within the realm of possibility or even likely. Rice and FAU would be other possibilities though less certain. Rice was a series that would have been valued 5+ years ago but they have been down for awhile and has a new staff with not as much connection to ours. FAU historically has stayed in South Florida early in the season. I would not expect these series to continue but we will have to wait and find out.

Expect to see a 30-game schedule (10 weekends) in the Sun Belt for baseball like C-USA has. The difference is you'll see a league schedule where you miss 3 teams in conference instead of 1 (a result of the Sun Belt now having 14 baseball-playing members instead of 12 in C-USA). My guess is USM will play each of the other 6 teams on the west side and then 4 of the 7 from the east side each year. This would mean that there will be some years where a matchup with Coastal Carolina isn't played. But most of the top programs are on the west side of the Sun Belt and the biggest RPI killers are in the east. 

Hypothetical 2023 Southern Miss Sun Belt baseball schedule

The Sun Belt has a deal in place in Montgomery to play the conference baseball tournament there until at least 2024. USM's first season in Sun Belt baseball will be in 2024. My hope is that they will rotate between the campuses of the core teams in the league ----Hattiesburg, Conway, Mobile, Lafayette --- and possibly places like Statesboro, Troy and San Marcos. However, it remains to be seen if this will happen long term. Biloxi and Pensacola can also work as sites off campus.

Overall, my vision for Sun Belt baseball is one where the level of competition is comparable to that of current C-USA or hopefully a little better where 3-4 bids is the norm. Regardless, I think baseball in the Sun Belt will be more fun because of the yearly weekend series with schools like South Alabama and ULL. Plus, better fan support in the conference as a whole. South Al in particular really stands out as a series that could become one of the better rivalries in the country.

Budget

Here is the USA TODAY budget link for 2020: https://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/finances

USM is toward the bottom just like in C-USA but is at least within range of several other schools in the Sun Belt. ULM is in their own category. James Madison ranks at the top due to collecting a massive amount of student fees.

This is just tickets + contributions ---- which I think is a decent way to gauge support for a program. USM is firmly in the middle of the pack here. Troy ranks a little lower than their attendance would suggest but it's possible it's just a bad year for them. Old Dominion, while a commuter school, does enjoy significant support in the Tidewater region as evidenced in the sheet. Arkansas State leads in contributions though is in the bottom half of ticket sales. 

Concluding thoughts

The Sun Belt makes sense for the University of Southern Mississippi at this point in time. When old school USM rivals like Memphis, Tulane, and ECU departed C-USA for the AAC, it left a conference that Southern Miss had little to nothing in common with. However, at the time, the Sun Belt still felt like a step down so the school remained in the league. In the last decade, the Sun Belt has created a clear identity ---- fun G5 football in smaller southern college towns with passionate fanbases ---- in a way that C-USA has not. It now makes sense for Southern Miss to join the league in a way it didn't around 2012/2013.

The move to the Sun Belt gives Southern Miss a chance to develop rivalries it hasn't been able to since the departure of Memphis, Tulane, and ECU. South Alabama, UL-Lafayette, and Troy are all drivable opponents with competitive athletic programs in the sports USM fans care about (football/basketball/baseball). USM fans will be able to relate to these teams in a way they didn't relate to C-USA 3.0.

Lastly, the Sun Belt gives USM a conference home where it can say it is geographically and culturally similar to the other member universities. USM and Hattiesburg fits in much better with university/town combos like Georgia Southern/Statesboro, App State/Boone, Arkansas State/Jonesboro, etc. than it does with FIU/Miami, UTSA/San Antonio, UTEP/El Paso, and the like. Even in the glory days of C-USA 1.0, it was not a geographically compact league with a shared culture. A public research university in Hattiesburg, Mississippi does not have much in common with a Jesuit school in Lincoln Park, Chicago (DePaul). The Sun Belt is a league almost entirely made up of public schools that are located in college towns or at least smaller cities. The days of being in a conference dominated by big city mega-commuter schools are now over. 

#ANALYSIS: Characteristics of Nixon and Wallace voters in the 1968 presidential election in Mississippi

The 1968 presidential election has always been an interest of mine and particularly the results in Mississippi. This was the third and final election in a 20-year period where Mississippi's electoral votes were taken by a third party ticket where a hardline conservative position on race was a major part of the platform. Awhile back I had posted the precinct returns for 8 different counties from the 1968 election in Mississippi. These counties are Hinds, Forrest, Washington, Pike, Scott, Yazoo, Attala, and Carroll. One of the questions I was trying to answer was who supported Nixon as Mississippi was his worst state. Black voters (newly enfranchised after the VRA) would overwhelmingly vote for the Democrat Hubert Humphrey and white voters strongly supported the independent George Wallace because of his opposition to civil rights. This limited Nixon's appeal. You can find the spreadsheet I was working with here. It includes the 1968 returns from 258 Mississippi precincts.

I have divided the 258 precincts into three categories: city, town, and country. City precincts are all precincts within a place that had 25,000+ people by the 1970 census. This includes Jackson, Hattiesburg, and Greenville. Town precincts are all precincts in a place with more than 4,000 people in 1970 but less than 25,000. This includes places like Clinton, Kosciusko, and Forest. Country precincts are all precincts in places with less than 4,000 people. 

Things to consider

1) my main theory going into this was that whites in integrated neighborhoods or areas would be most likely to support Wallace and least likely to support Nixon. They would feel more threatened by the civil rights movement and want to support Wallace is my thinking. This idea will be featured heavily throughout the rest of this post.

2) Lyndon Johnson lost Mississippi by 75 points in 1964, but still had limited support in pockets of the state (namely NE Mississippi and Hancock County). This did not happen for Humphrey in 1968. It was thought Humphrey received less than 5% of the white vote in Mississippi. The vote being split down racial lines is helpful in this case because it gives an estimate of the racial makeup of an individual precinct. A precinct where Humphrey's percentage is very low would indicate a white, mostly segregated neighborhood or voting precinct. Remember that my theory is that Nixon would do better among whites in whiter precincts and worse among whites in more integrated or majority-minority areas.

3) Nixon's share of the conservative vote (Nixon's vote / Nixon + Wallace vote) in the Deep South was 32%. My definition of Deep South is the same as V.O. Key's --- Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina. I believe this number to a good barometer for Nixon success in Mississippi. Nixon's share of the conservative vote in Mississippi was just under 18%.

City voters

My 1968 city precincts sheet can be found here. It is sorted by Nixon's share of the conservative/white vote.

White voters in cities were the most likely to support Nixon. In my sample, Nixon won 33% of the conservative vote in Jackson, Hattiesburg, and Greenville ---- this was about the same as his share of the overall conservative vote in the Deep South region. Of the 19 precincts where Nixon's share of the conservative vote was highest, all were located within cities. In my sample, 34 of the 43 precincts where Nixon exceeded his Deep South share of the conservative vote were in cities. The question now is what are the characteristics of these areas where Nixon did relatively well.

When I plugged in the values for Humphrey support and Nixon's share of the conservative vote, it gave me a correlation value of -.3692 indicating a moderate to somewhat strong correlation. This would mean that the lower Humphrey % or segregated a neighborhood was, it was generally more likely for these areas to support Nixon. Of the 34 city precincts in my sample where Nixon exceeded his Deep South conservative %, Humphrey got 10% or less in 27 of them. Nixon won 14 precincts outright in my sample and 12 of these were in city precincts where Humphrey got less than 10%. This means that Nixon's best areas in Mississippi tended to be in white, segregated neighborhoods in the state's densely populated areas.

There were outliers that prevented this correlation from being higher. For example, there were precincts in Greenville and Jackson where Humphrey won a supermajority of votes and Nixon exceeded the 32% mark. There were also precincts where Humphrey got a very small % of the vote (again, indicating a largely segregated neighborhood) and Wallace did very well. However, Nixon's urban strength in the state was typically in precincts with a low percentage of Humphrey (i.e. black) voters. 

Town voters

My 1968 town precincts sheet can be found here.

As pointed out in my screenshot, white voters in towns were less likely to support Nixon than white voters in cities. In my sample, Nixon got a quarter of the white voters in Mississippi towns. Of the 43 precincts in my sample where Nixon exceeded his Deep South conservative share, 6 were in towns. When I plugged in values for Humphrey support and Nixon's % of the white vote, it spit out a correlation of -.1721, which would indicate a weak correlation for Nixon support in white, segregated neighborhoods. The Humphrey % in Nixon's best town precincts tend to bear this out. The top 2 Nixon town precincts were in Leland where Humphrey got 35-40% of the vote (i.e. very much integrated). His 3rd and 4th best town precincts were in McComb in areas where Humphrey got less than 5% of the vote (i.e. very much segregated). This along with the correlation number for all 30 town precincts in my sample show that there wasn't much consistency in Nixon support and segregated neighborhoods in smaller Mississippi towns. 

Country voters

My 1968 country precincts sheet can be found here.

Not surprisingly, Nixon fared worst among white voters in the country. Wallace's hardline stance against civil rights was popular among this demographic. In my sample, Nixon won about 1/8 (12%) of the white or conservative vote in country precincts. Of the 43 precincts in my sample where Nixon exceeded his Deep South conservative share, just 2 were in the country. The correlation between Humphrey % and Nixon % of the white vote was .2261 ---- this was a positive correlation. Meaning that there was a correlation between Humphrey % (and the less white an area is) and Nixon's share of the white vote. Granted, this was a weak correlation, but was the opposite of what I was looking for in my theory. In the 10 precincts of my rural sample where Nixon won the highest % of the white/conservative vote, the Humphrey % ranged from 28-50% in all but 1. This would indicate that these rural areas of relative Nixon strength were integrated though given that these were rural precincts this was less of a big deal than an integrated area in a city or town (population density, etc.).

Conclusion

There was a divide among white voters in Mississippi that was largely based on geography in the 1968 election. Urban white voters were more likely to back Nixon than rural white voters (though Wallace still won urban white voters) who overwhelmingly favored Wallace. Semi-urban white voters in smaller towns like Kosciusko, McComb, and Forest were somewhere in between these two. There was a moderate to somewhat strong negative correlation of Humphrey support to Nixon's share of the conservative vote. Meaning that a precinct with a high % of whites would be more likely to back Nixon. Urban whites in precincts with a higher % of Humphrey/black voters were more likely to back Wallace.  This divide was not seen as much in country or town precincts and the correlation between Humphrey and Nixon support was considered weak. In short, the people most likely to support Nixon in 1968 in Mississippi were urban/city whites in white, segregated neighborhoods.

So, my theory was somewhat correct. City voters in integrated areas were less likely to back Nixon and went for Wallace at higher rates. However, this was not as true in town precincts and country precincts.